Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide ahead of Fed decision as tariff fears return

US stocks fell Tuesday in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, set for release at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Investors will be closely watching to see how President Trump’s tariffs could influence future monetary policy.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped nearly 1%, or almost 400 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped around 0.9% after recovering from steeper losses earlier in the session.

The April jobs report showed the US labor market isn’t rapidly cooling and pushed markets to not price in an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until the July meeting. But some on Wall Street still think an economic slowdown is likely underway, even if it’s not showing up in mass layoffs or a large pickup in the unemployment rate just yet. Subsequently, they believe the Fed should probably be cutting sooner rather than later.

One chart Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta has highlighted recently is the Fed funds rate against private industries wage growth. Dutta, who believes the US economy will entering into recession this year, points out that wages are now growing at a slower rate year-over-year than the cost of borrowing.

“Historically, that is never a good place to be,” Dutta said.

While we should highlight that most common recessionary data points haven’t been accurate in the post-pandemic cycle, the chart below shows that nearly every time private industries wage growth has fallen below the Fed funds rate a recession soon followed.

“Wage and salary growth is running below the level of the fed funds rate,” Dutta wrote in a note on May 1. “That’s a sign that past policy has already been too tight!”

Disney (DIS) is set to report its fiscal second quarter earnings before the bell on Wednesday, with investors closely monitoring updates on its parks and streaming businesses.

Parks, a historically resilient and significant profit driver, now faces challenges from economic uncertainties and growing competition, particularly with the upcoming launch of NBCUniversal’s Epic Universe.

In the first quarter, the company reported a 5% decline in operating income for its domestic parks, largely due to the impact of Hurricanes Milton and Helene and pre-opening expenses related to the launch of the Disney Treasure cruise ship.

The company has maintained its full-year guidance of 6% to 8% operating income growth for parks, with expectations for growth to accelerate in the latter half of the year, supported by strong Disney Treasure bookings. But potential pullbacks in consumer spending and tourism could complicate this outlook.

Here’s how Wall Street expects Disney to perform, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

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Comcast’s (CMCSA) just revealed the name of its spin-off company, previously referred to as SpinCo. The new company will now be called Versant, a name chosen to emphasize its versatility and pronounced like the root of the word “conversant.”

This spin-off was first announced late last year as Comcast said it wanted to “play offense” in a media industry increasingly affected by increased cord-cutting.

The newly formed “Versant” will include most of NBCUniversal’s cable television networks, such as USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY, and the Golf Channel.

However, Comcast will maintain ownership of its NBC broadcast network, including NBC News, and its Peacock streaming service. Notably, the Bravo channel, important for Peacock’s original content, will not be part of the spin-off.

While many streaming platforms are becoming profitable, the decline of traditional cablefor legacy media companies.

For years, revenue from traditional cable subscribers, including affiliate fees (payments made by pay-TV providers to carry channels), helped sustain networks. But with the rise of streaming and the drop in cable subscribers, affiliate fees have decreased. Meanwhile, new streaming companies entering the advertising market are also taking a hit to traditional networks’ revenues.

The combination of shrinking cable viewership and heavy debt loads has forced many media companies to cut costs, leading to layoffs and restructuring. Wall Street analysts believe that “Versant” could potentially acquire other struggling cable properties in the future.

Comcast shares traded flat shortly following the announcement

Philips (PHG) stock slid more than 4% on Tuesday as tariff concerns offset a moderate first quarter earnings report. Yahoo Finance’s Anjalee Khemlani reports:

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Tesla’s (TSLA) problems in Europe aren’t improving. If anything, they may be getting worse.

Shares of the electric vehicle maker fell 2% on Tuesday after data pointed to demand weakness amid a Model Y changeover and CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing role in the Trump administration.

Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:

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The head of the largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin predicts US shale production has peaked, and will likely decline from here as oil hovers near four-year lows.

“We have a very good view of what the US looks like. And right now that’s a business that’s slowing dramatically and likely declining in terms of production,” Diamondback CEO Travis Stice said during the company’s earnings call on Tuesday morning.

Stice, slated to step down and become executive chairman later this month, issued a shareholder letter on Monday pointing to declining Permian Basin crew count as indication that “production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter.”

“We know a lot of people in the business,” Stice told analysts. “Every single conversation I’ve had…is that this oil price doesn’t work.”

On Tuesday oil prices rebounded after touching their lowest point in four years in the prior session.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures rallied 4% to hover just below $60 per barrel. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also rebounded to trade near $63 per barrel.

The threat of lower demand from a global trade war while supply from OPEC increases has put pressure on crude prices over the past month. Year-to-date WTI is down 18%. Brent crude is down 17% over the same period.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday on Capitol Hill that new trade deals with major partners could be announced as soon as this week.

“Many of our trading partners have approached us with very good offers, and we are in the process of renegotiating those,” Bessent said, noting that the US is currently in talks with 17 of its 18 key trading partners, with China as the exception.

“I’d be surprised if we don’t have more than 80% or 90% of those wrapped up by the end of the year, and that may be much sooner than I would think. Perhaps as early as this week we will be announcing trade deals with some of our largest trading partners,” he added. “They have come to us with very good offers.”

The Treasury secretary said he expects a “substantial reduction” in tariffs on US goods, along with the removal of non-tariff barriers, curbs on currency manipulation, and limits on subsidies for labor and capital investment.

Bessent emphasized that trade is one pillar of a broader economic agenda he described as a “three-legged stool” of trade, tax reform, and deregulation. Overall, he said trade negotiations are progressing rapidly, with the House expected to send its portion of the trade bill to the Senate around Memorial Day, according to Speaker Johnson.

Deregulation, he added, will take longer to influence the economy, but he anticipates seeing meaningful benefits in the third and fourth quarters of this year and potentially in full effect compared to the same time last year.

Yahoo Finance’s Laura Bratton reports:

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Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferré reports:

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US stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, with the biggest declines led by tech, as investors counted down to the start of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting and continued to digest the impact of President Trump’s tariffs.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped roughly 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way lower, falling around 1.3%.

Famed investor Paul Tudor Jones doesn’t sound like a believer in the market’s recovery from its post-“Liberation Day” decline.

“We’ll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to 50%,” Tudor Jones told CNBC on Tuesday.

He added that with the Fed not cutting rates and these lowered tariffs amounting to the largest tax hike since the 60s, economic growth will slow up to 3%. Conditions that, in Tudor Jones’ view, will constitute the market falling below lows reached in the wake of “Liberation Day.”

Following Trump’s sweeping and surprising reciprocal tariff announcements on April 2, the S&P 500 fell 10% in just two trading days, with losses from record highs reached on Feb. 19 topping 19% but not quite reaching the 20% threshold to constitute a bear market.

After a 9-day winning streak that ended last Friday, the S&P 500 had regained more than all of its losses suffered in April.

Stock futures were pointing to a second day of losses on Tuesday.

Here’s a look at some of the trending tickers in premarket trading as stocks trade on earnings:

Palantir (PLTR) stock dropped 7% before the opening bell after solid earnings and a revenue forecast raise failed to impress Wall Street’s lofty expectations for the data analytics firm. The stock is up 63% this year, fueled by surging demand for its AI business.

Ford (F) shares fell 2% despite better-than-expected first quarter results. Ford pulled its full-year guidance and warned that President Trump’s tariffs on autos and auto parts would have a $1.5 billion cost impact on adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) this year.

DoorDash (DASH) stock fell 5% after it struck a deal to buy UK-listed food delivery service Deliveroo (ROO.L) for $3.86 billion. DoorDash expects to complete the transaction by the end of the year, expanding its global footprint.

Lemonade (LMND) stock gained 8% Monday morning after the techy insurance provider posted first quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations. Lemonade also raised its full-year revenue outlook as it works to become profitable.

Barbie maker Mattel (MAT) has joined Ford (F) and others in flagging that it’s bracing for a big impact from President Trump’s overhaul of trade policy.

Shares slipped into the red in premarket trading despite the toymaker’s earnings beat on Monday.

“Given the volatile macroeconomic environment and evolving U.S. tariff landscape, it is difficult to predict consumer spending and Mattel’s U.S. sales in the remainder of the year and holiday season,” the company said, as it withdrew its previous full-year forecasts.

Mattel warned it may need to hike US prices for some of its products as it faces $270 million in added input costs from tariffs this year. The company imports about 20% of the items it sells in the US from China, according to Reuters.

But it said it expects to offset those costs as it accelerates moves to shift manufacturing from China.

Read more here.

The steep recovery in equity markets over the past two weeks is typical of bear market rallies, and the erratic swings mean almost every investor will experience pain whichever direction the market suddenly moves.

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) strategist Peter Oppenheimer said “the asymmetry for equity investing is poor. Sharp rallies within bear markets are the norm, not the exception.”

The biggest market driver is still uncertainty, with no real long-term bullish or bearish conviction seen from investors. Price action is mainly fueled by short-term headlines and guesswork on how the quickly evolving US tariffs story will be told through corporate earnings and resetting valuations.

“If the tariff announcements are reversed quickly with little lasting economic damage, this does suggest that the downside risks are limited. Nonetheless, at current valuations, we also think the upside is limited,” Oppenheimer wrote in a note.

Investing becomes far more difficult in such a regime, when both upside and downside are seen as limited and decision making is caught in foggy headline risk. Market participants have to choose between chasing a fading rally then risk exiting too late, or missing out entirely on another squeeze higher. They want to avoid trap doors in a tricky macroeconomic environment while still being able to capture opportunities.

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Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer reports:

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has recouped all of its “Liberation Day” losses with help from the longest winning streak for the benchmark index since 2004.

But now, with the S&P 500 up about 14% from its April 8 low, Wall Street strategists aren’t confident that a smooth path higher for the index will continue.

“For now, fundamental and macro concerns are pushed out but not alleviated,” Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients.

To Chronert’s point, there have been incremental signs that the US is nearing trade deals in recent weeks, but none have actually been announced. This leaves Trump’s tariffs as a consistent variable in the investing landscape.

Another key concern is the risk of recession. While the April jobs report released Friday showed the US labor market remains on solid footing, other indicators have continued to flash signs of a cooling jobs environment. This comes amid a wave of other worse-than-expected economic data.

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A wave of dollar (DX=F) selling in Asia is an ominous sign for the greenback as the world’s export powerhouse starts to question a decades-long trend of investing its big trade surpluses in US assets.

Ripples from Friday and Monday’s record rally in the Taiwan dollar (TWD=X) are now spreading outward, driving surges for currencies in Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, China and Hong Kong.

The moves sound a warning for the dollar because they suggest money is moving in to Asia at scale and that a key pillar of dollar support is wobbling.

While Tuesday brought a measure of stability, following a stunning 10% two-day leap for Taiwan’s currency, Hong Kong’s dollar (HKD=X) was testing the strong end of its peg and the Singapore dollar has soared close to its highest in more than a decade.

“To me, it has a very sort of Asian-crisis-in-reverse feel to it,” said Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner of Gavekal Research, in a podcast, due to the speed of the currency moves.

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Chinese shares advanced on their return from a five-day holiday, aided by signs of easing trade tensions with the US and data showing resilient domestic consumption.

The onshore benchmark CSI 300 (000300.SS) Index ended 1% higher Tuesday, with telecom and technology names among the top gainers. An index of small-cap stocks rallied 3.3% to close at a one-month high.

The gains came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could see some “substantial progress in the coming weeks” in trade talks with China. That followed President Donald Trump‘s remarks that said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point, building on optimism triggered by Beijing’s statement Friday that it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US.

Meanwhile, latest data from strong sales at key retail and catering firms to robust holiday traffic results also came as a welcome sign for policymakers seeking to boost consumption to drive future economic expansion. Those appear to have eased concerns about slowing growth after a private gauge showed China’s services activity deteriorated more than expected in April.

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Palantir Technologies Inc. stock dropped 9.2% in after-hours trading following earnings reports that did not live up to Wall Street’s sky-high expectations.

Bloomberg reports:

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