500 billion dollars is about to flood in! According to JPMorgan, the ‘retail army’ is the Block Orders, and the US stock market may rise another 10%.

①JPMorgan predicts that investors will inject $500 billion into the U.S. stock market in the second half of this year, with the majority coming from retail traders; ②Retail investors have already net bought $270 billion worth of stocks and are expected to purchase an additional $3600 billion in the second half; ③Foreign investors may add a net $50 billion to $100 billion on top of their current positions to support the rise in U.S. equities.

Cailian, July 11 (Editor Huang Junzhi) JPMorgan’s latest forecast indicates that a large influx of funds will flow into the U.S. stock market in the second half of this year.

In their most recent report, a team of JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that investors are prepared to inject $500 billion into the U.S. stock market for the remainder of 2025, with the majority coming from retail traders.

“Led by retail investors, we expect the stock purchase flows for the rest of the year to be close to $500 billion, sufficient to push U.S. equities up by another 5%-10% by the end of the year,” they wrote.

Retail Investors Set to Flood In

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, retail investors have net bought $270 billion worth of stocks so far this year, with their asset purchasing pace being particularly aggressive in the first four months of 2025.

JPMorgan points out that, based on the bank’s December 2024 forecast of $630 billion in total retail stock purchases for the year, it now expects retail investors to buy an additional $360 billion worth of stocks in the second half of this year.

Additionally, data from research firm Vanda Research shows that retail investors have demonstrated unprecedented enthusiasm for buying stocks in the first half of this year. According to Marco Iachini, Vice President of the company, the cumulative net retail purchases of stocks and ETFs in the first six months reached the highest level in at least the past decade, including during the stock market boom during the pandemic.

Among these, Technology Stocks attracted the most attention. Ianchini reported that NVIDIA was the most favored stock by retail investors in the first half of the year, with inflows reaching $19.3 billion for the chipmaker. Tesla followed closely with $11.9 billion in inflows, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw $6.3 billion in inflows.

According to JPMorgan, these investors bought heavily during the March and April lows and then took profits in May and June. Strategists noted that the short-term profit-taking by retail investors this year is not a change in behavior but a natural reaction to the V-shaped recovery in U.S. stocks.

They wrote, “We believe that retail investors will resume their stock purchases from July onwards and drive the market higher.”

Foreign Investors Are Back

As for other factors that may support the rally in U.S. stocks, JPMorgan mentioned foreign investors. The bank stated that, despite concerns that overseas buyers have reduced their exposure to the U.S. market due to tariff volatility and an expanding U.S. budget deficit, foreign investors might increase their investment by an additional $50-100 billion on the current basis.

They wrote, “We believe that the ‘resistance’ of foreign investors to U.S. equities is unsustainable, as investors cannot avoid the largest and most important growth sector in global equities.”

They referred to the rise of the S&P 500 Index and the strong performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’.

Data shows that since February, foreign investors have been in a state of ‘buyer strike.’ JPMorgan strategists added that foreign investors may want to see the USD stabilize before they become interested in the U.S. stock market.

However, the bank noted that this stabilization may have already begun, with the USD Index remaining stable around 98 in recent weeks.

Edited by Danial