Summary
- The market is showing dangerous complacency despite looming risks like seasonal weakness, lagging Fed policy, and tariff impacts not yet fully realized.
- Valuations are stretched, with bubble-like euphoria in tech and AI stocks, and unprecedented market concentration in a handful of mega-cap names.
- The jobs market is deteriorating, and history shows that Fed rate cuts often follow, not prevent, market downturns and recessions.
- Given these factors, I am selling into strength and raising cash, expecting a market correction and better entry points ahead.
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images
The stock market seems invincible these days, and it just hit a new record high after the Jackson Hole meeting, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally seemed to soften up for a potential rate cut
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