3 min read
Last week, you might have seen that PEXA Group Limited (ASX:PXA) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.0% to AU$15.34 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at AU$394m, while statutory losses ballooned to AU$0.43 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from PEXA Group’s eleven analysts is for revenues of AU$424.2m in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 7.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. PEXA Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of AU$0.066 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$439.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.11 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for PEXA Group
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$17.17, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on PEXA Group’s valuation. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on PEXA Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$20.00 and the most bearish at AU$14.72 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that PEXA Group’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% annually. So it’s pretty clear that, while PEXA Group’s revenue growth is expected to slow, it’s expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
