After the 2020 corrective low in global equities, India was one the few countries that was able to keep up with the U.S. through the end of 2024. However, Indian equities have lagged the U.S. badly this year with a YTD return of only 3.44% for the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) . While 2025 has been an off-cycle year for India’s stock market, a new technical catalyst is on the horizon that bodes well for a strong finish to the year, in both absolute and relative terms. INDA has been in a corrective phase for over a year, reflecting weak long-term momentum. The corrective phase has taken the shape of a triangle pattern, with converging highs and lows on the chart. We always pay attention when triangles form because we find that triangle breakouts often see strong upside follow-through. To start the week, INDA is above the upper boundary of the triangle, near $54.50, which sets up a pending breakout. For a major resistance level, we require two consecutive weekly closes above for confirmation. If the breakout is confirmed, it would be a bullish intermediate-term development associated with a weekly MACD “buy” signal, targeting final resistance near $59.50. Intermediate-term overbought conditions are not yet a hindrance, as is often the case with triangle breakouts. INDA has already cleared short-term resistance from the daily cloud model on positive short-term momentum. The bullish short-term catalyst increases the likelihood that INDA can pull away from long-term triangle resistance in the coming weeks. A near-term upside objective is near $55.90, a level which defined the June peak. Last week, the ratio of INDA to the S & P 500 Index (SPX) confirmed an intermediate-term counter-trend ‘buy’ signal from Tom DeMark’s TD Combo® model. The previous signal of this nature in late February was timely, preceding a strong phase of outperformance lasting a couple months. The current signal supports another eight weeks of outperformance from INDA relative to the SPX. For long positions in INDA, we would like to see the ETF remain above its 200-day (~40-week) moving average for risk management purposes, as the triangle would be jeopardized below that level. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. 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There’s a positive technical catalyst on the horizon for India’s stock market, says Katie Stockton
Oct 20, 2025
