Illumina (ILMN) Returns to Profitability, Undervalued Versus Peers but Growth Lags Market

Simply Wall St

Sat, November 1, 2025 at 5:19 AM EDT 4 min read

Illumina (ILMN) has returned to profitability, reporting high quality earnings and trading at $123.54 per share, which is below its estimated fair value of $166.88. The company is forecasting EPS growth of 8.3% per year, but both its earnings and revenue growth outlooks (8.3% and 4.1% per year, respectively) fall short of overall US market averages. With a price-to-earnings ratio of 27x, below peer and industry averages, investors are eyeing Illumina as a value opportunity, even as growth expectations remain muted compared to the broader market.

See our full analysis for Illumina.

The next section will dig into how these numbers measure up against the dominant narratives for Illumina, highlighting where expectations are met and where surprises might emerge.

See what the community is saying about Illumina

• Consensus forecasts signal profit margins falling from 29.3% today to 18.4% within three years, suggesting a notable squeeze even as Illumina maintains profitability.

• According to the analysts’ consensus view, ongoing gains from operational efficiency and new products remain at risk, since expected earnings will decrease from $1.3 billion to $873.5 million by 2028.

  • This contrasts with assumptions about expanding clinical demand, highlighting tension between long-term growth drivers and near-term margin pressure.

  • Analysts acknowledge a broad range of forecasts, from $1.0 billion to $715.5 million in future earnings, making the margin trajectory a critical debate for investors.

• Consensus narrative notes that Illumina’s platforms depend on recurring clinical consumables now making up over 60% of sequencing revenue, but slower revenue growth and margin compression could limit upside if adoption or reimbursement slow.

See how the consensus narrative weighs in on Illumina’s profitability outlook and whether margins can hold up as competition rises. 📊 Read the full Illumina Consensus Narrative.

• Analysts project a 3.09% annual decline in shares outstanding over the next three years, which may help offset pressure on per-share earnings as overall profits decline.

• The consensus narrative argues that targeted buybacks, together with operational efficiencies, will help cushion the impact of soft research markets and margin contraction.

  • The ongoing reduction in share count is positioned as a key lever for sustaining EPS, providing some defensive ballast in the face of challenging end-market conditions.

  • While bulls may point to this as a positive, the sheer scale of anticipated margin and profit declines puts pressure on even aggressive buyback programs.