Updated 2 min read
US stock futures trod water on Tuesday in the wait for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting to start, as investors convinced of a rate cut this week turn their focus to the chances of more easing next year.
Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), the S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) all traded broadly flat, coming off modest losses on Monday for Wall Street stocks.
Stocks are drifting sideways despite an uptick in habitual market driver Nvidia’s (NVDA) shares, up roughly 2% after President Trump signed off on allowing the AI bellwether to resume some shipments of H200 AI chips to China.
Instead, the spotlight is on the Fed’s two-day meeting and its final policy decision of the year, due Wednesday. Markets are all but convinced of getting a quarter-point rate cut to match similar moves in September and October, with 89% odds currently priced in.
Given that, investors have switched to watching the Fed for clues to whether 2026 will bring more easing — but the chances of that are less certain in the wake of December’s “hawkish cut“. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, largely seen as the favorite for next Fed chair, has struck a cautious tone, saying it would be irresponsible to set out plans for the next six month.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields (^TNX) rose to their highest level in over two months on Monday, but pulled back slightly on Tuesday alongside similar moves in the broader bond market.
Both Wall Street and the Fed get a last look at the labor market before Wednesday’s rate decision, with the release of delayed JOLTS readings on job openings, quit rates, and layoffs for October.
Also on deck are corporate earnings from Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), and Lululemon (LULU), which could shed light on megacap AI and retail trends.
LIVE 6 updates
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
Economic data: BLS releases Sept. & Oct JOLTS data; NFIB small business optimism (November);
Earnings: AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), SailPoint (SAIL), GameStop (GME), The Campbell’s Company (CPB), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), Braze (BRZE), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
PepsiCo to cut prices, drop products in deal with activist Elliott
Fed may need QE if markets lack faith in Powell’s successor: Man
The median home in the US costs $415K. Here’s what that buys you
Tariffs latest: Trump threatens Mexico hike, unveils $12B farmer bailout
China to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump approval
Apple’s slow AI pace a strength as market grows weary of spending
Google hit by EU antitrust probe over content use by AI tools
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Premarket trending tickers: Pfizer, Ares and CVS
Pfizer (PFE) stock rose 1% before the bell following an announcement that it has entered into an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma, a subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (600196.SS).
Ares (ARES) stock rose 8% during premarket trading on Tuesday after the asset manager was included in the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova (K).
CVS (CVS) stock rose 3% during premarket trading on Tuesday after forecasting 2026 profit above Wall Street estimates.
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Toll Brothers stock falls as home incentives weigh on margins, earnings
Toll Brothers (TOL) stock fell over 4% in premarket after the high-end homebuilder’s quarterly results showed promotional activity weighing on margins and an earnings miss.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, Toll Brothers reported earnings per share of $4.58, compared to estimates of $4.89, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue came in at $3.41 billion, compared to estimates of $3.31 billion.
The homebuilder saw promotional activity weigh on its home sale margins. Toll Brothers reported a gross margin of 26%, compared to estimates of 26.5%. Despite lower mortgage rates, homebuilders are facing competitive pressures as they look to entice reluctant buyers off the sidelines.
Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley noted “soft demand” and a “choppy” housing market this year, though he emphasized that the luxury business remains differentiated.
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Trump moves to address Americans’ affordability concerns even as he calls those worries a ‘con job’
Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports:
President Trump is hitting the road this week to address Americans’ affordability concerns head-on. But it’s a trip that comes as his rhetoric and actions often appear at odds with each other.
On one front, Trump and his team continue to dismiss the sense prevalent among many Americans that everyday costs are becoming harder to manage.
… On the other hand, Trump and his team have taken a series of actions in an apparent acknowledgement that affordability is more than a media creation.
Recent weeks have seen the president reverse some of his tariffs on grocery store items. He has also floated ideas like $2,000 tariff rebate checks and even 50-year mortgages to lower month-to-month costs.
… Trump’s approach clearly hasn’t helped his poll numbers, which offer a near-daily reminder that Americans have a sour opinion of his handling of the economy. The RealClearPolitics poll average of Trump’s approval rating on the economy stood at just 39.8% approval on Monday, compared to 57.6% who said they are unhappy with the direction of things.
The issue could be the president’s most glaring political vulnerability and a central threat to the GOP’s midterm election chances.
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Paramount rises price in hostile takeover bid for Netflix, backed by Trump’s son-in-law
Bloomberg reports:
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Natural gas loses more than 7% to fall back below $5, oil sheds 2%
Natural gas (NG=F) prices spent Monday in free fall, tumbling by more than 7.9% to drop back below the $5 mark.
After a cold shock last week that saw prices jump above $5, a mark not seen since December 2022, new predictions from meteorologists for a warmer-than-expected winter have pushed natural gas in the other direction in the steepest fall for the energy product since the end of June.
At the same time, monthly production in the US’ lower 48 states is at a record of 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in December, according to data from LSEG, up the previous high of 109.6 bcf/d set in November, adding to natural gas supply and depressing prices.
Moderating the price fall, average flows of gas to liquified natural gas (LNG) plants in the US also hit a new monthly high in December at 18.9 bcf/d, up from a previous high of 18.2 bcf/d set in November. When gas is sent to LNG plants, it decreases the amounts available for storage and winter heating demand use, tightening the market.
Elsewhere in the energy market, futures on crude oil also spent Monday in a downturn, as prices on Brent crude, the international benchmark, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude both fell around 2% on Monday.
Predictions of a coming global oil supply glut have in recent months moved from estimate to reality, and oil markets have begun to price in the abundance. And in a meeting with Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is planning to continue sending “uninterrupted fuel supplies” to India even as the US has ratcheted up pressure on Indian refiners to curb their purchases of Russian barrels.
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