Stock market today: Dow slips, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as Fed meeting kicks off, JOLTS data shows openings rose

Stocks ended the session mixed on Tuesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.1%.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) declined 0.4%.

Tesla (TSLA) inched higher as the EV maker appears to be on step closer toward a major milestone with its full self-driving (FSD) software.

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovered near $94,000, but strategists cautioned against chasing the token as the market expects the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell could signal a pause after that.

Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:

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Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares rose by more than 2% after the company healthily raised its earnings and cash flow growth targets under a new 2030 corporate strategy released Tuesday.

The oil supermajor, the top producer in the United States, is projecting $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth from 2024 to 2030, up from $20 billion and $30 billion, respectively, under a previous plan.

The updated figures assume that the price of the international oil benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F), currently hovering around $61.90, trades at an inflation-adjusted $65 after a year that has been harrowing for oil prices.

Brent crude and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) have fallen by 16.8% and 18%, respectively, since the start of the year.

“Several years ago, when we began to transform this company, we did so with one objective: to fully unlock our competitive advantages. Today, our transformation is driving industry-leading results,” said Darren Woods, ExxonMobil chairman and CEO.

Woods noted that the company expects to hit its new targets with “no increase in capital” while generating a 17% return on capital employed. Exxon is also ahead of its 2030 emissions reduction plans, Woods said. The oil company’s shares are trading 10% higher than where they opened at the start of January, consistently outperforming the broader energy sector.

Exxon’s heightened projections arrive as the industry is facing multiple headwinds. Analysts have reached a unanimous consensus that the oil market is quickly heading for a large oversupply glut that will be counted in the millions of barrels per day, expected to depress prices. And in the Permian Basin, where Exxon is a prolific operator, shale gas volumes are slowing, and rig counts have been falling.

Commodities strategists are targeting average prices for West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, to average anywhere from a slightly lower $57 to a dramatically lower range of around the $30 to $40 per barrel mark.

Despite this, Exxon is planning to increase its production to 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (bpoed) by 2030, up from a previous target of 5.4 million bpoed, according to its new strategy.

At the same time, the oil major is exploring other sources of potential revenue, reportedly in advanced discussions with data center developers to supply natural gas power to the AI infrastructure economy.

Bank of America’s (BAC) top commodities strategist Francisco Blanch said on Tuesday that the impact of a widely predicted oil oversupply glut will likely not have an outsized impact on prices, in large part because the OPEC+ cartel is unlikely to stomach a precipitous drop.

“[OPEC] can’t really afford a $40 or $30 barrel outcome,” Blanch said in a media briefing, explaining that capital for many of the member countries is not as loose as it was in previous price wars around the 2010s, when several years of prices over $100 per barrel “left their coffers suited to a price war.”

The latest predictions from the International Energy Agency, a global industry watchdog, see the oil overhang reaching 4 million barrels per day (b/d), though BofA pegs the number closer to 2 million b/d.

International benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F), currently trading around $62, is likely to average $60 through 2026, according to the bank’s price targets, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F), trading around $58.20, is expected to change hands around $57.

The predictions from Blanch’s team are less bearish than those put out by other major Wall Street banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) commodities strategists see Brent and WTI averaging at $58 and $54 in 2026 under their base case, while strategists at Goldman Sachs (GS) see the crude products trading at $56 and $52, respectively.

Home Depot (HD) shared a cautious outlook for 2026 at its investor day. But if the housing market improves, the company believes that it will see stronger growth.

The company expects same-store sales for the next fiscal year to be in the range of flat to 2%, alongside revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5%. It expects adjusted earnings to increase between roughly flat and up 4%.

However, if the housing market recovers and consumers return to bigger ticket projects, sales could increase even more. In this case, the company expects same-store sales growth of 4% to 5%, alongside revenue growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted earnings growth of mid-to-high single-digits.

“We’re observing several dynamics that are pressuring housing and unproven demand,” CFO Richard McPhail told investors. “First, the elevated interest rate and mortgage rate environment since 2020 has stifled housing turnover as a result of the mortgage lobby effect.”

McPhail believes that could change soon. “We believe affordability concerns are pushing the housing market towards equilibrium as home prices are trending towards flat.”

Home Depot stock rose modestly in early trading but is down around 10% year to date.

Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said that affordability concerns and general uncertainty have led consumers to stay put in their homes.

“Housing turnover has remained at historical lows since 2023, which has significantly reduced demand for projects associated with buying and selling money,” McPhail said, noting that consumers who put off larger projects could create “pent-up demand [that] can be greater than $20 billion and at some point will be a significant tail.”

Plus, 55% of US homes are now 40+ years old, and McPhail is optimistic they will “require higher levels of maintenance, repair and renovations” in the near future.

For the current fiscal year, Home Depot reaffirmed its outlook for same-store sales to be “slightly positive” and for full-year earnings per share to drop by 5%.

Silver prices surged to a record of $60 per ounce on Tuesday as growing expectations for rate cuts continued to fuel a powerful rally across the metals market.

Silver futures (SI=F) rose above $60.50, extending their stunning year-to-date gain to 107%. Gold (GC=F) futures have also advanced, now sitting more than $100 below their October all-time high, with the yellow metal up more than 60% this year.

A weaker US dollar and easing interest rates have helped fuel the sharp rally in precious metals.

Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban writes:

Read more here in the takeaway from today’s Morning Brief.

US job openings rose slightly in October to reach 7.67 million openings in the month, up from 7.66 million openings in September, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

October’s figure — which exceeded economist expectations of 7.12 million openings — is the highest number of job openings in five months, according to Bloomberg. Hires remained “little-changed” at 5.1 million on the month.

Preliminary data on the hire rate showed October’s rate falling to 3.2% from 3.4%, according to the BLS data. Preliminary data on quits across nonfarm payrolls indicated a quit rate of 1.8% on the month, down from September’s 2%.

After a precipitous drop on Monday, futures on natural gas (NG=F) continued to fall Tuesday morning, shedding more than 3.2% in what has become a solid downturn for the energy commodity.

Natural gas, which crossed $5 for the first time in three years last week on predictions of a cold winter and heavy heating demand, along with record US exports of liquified natural gas (LNG), has spent the back half of the year soaring upward, climbing more than 30% in the past six months.

But on Monday, as winter weather predictions turned mild — and as projected heating demand hasn’t yet emerged as expected, especially in the benchmark-setting northeastern US region — the energy product shed more than 7% in its biggest single-day drop since the end of June.

The US has also continued to produce natural gas at record monthly levels, filling domestic stores and adding to an already ample supply on the market.

Futures on international oil benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F), which both shed around 2% on Monday, held just below flat Tuesday morning, down around 0.1%.

The US stock market opened with a mixed performance on Tuesday, as investors awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with some convinced of a rate cut this week turning their focus to the chances of further easing next year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained around 0.25%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) held just above the flat line, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) traded into the red by around 0.4% before paring losses.

In the tech sector, Nvidia opened the trading day down a bit over 0.8%, coming off a small gain after President Trump signed off on allowing the AI bellwether to resume some shipments of H200 AI chips to China.

In focus on Tuesday will be the Fed’s two-day meeting and its final policy decision of the year, which markets will get on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in odds of 89.4% of another quarter-point cut.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares traded roughly flat following news that the company will be allowed to export its more powerful H200 GPUs to China.

President Trump said in a post on Truth Social Monday that the US will allow Nvidia to ship the AI chips to approved customers in the country — yet another reversal from the administration’s previous approach to the US chip trade with China. The administration effectively banned sales of Nvidia’s less-powerful H20 chips in a surprise move in April, but reversed that ban in exchange for a cut of Nvidia’s revenue from the country (an arrangement that has not been finalized, per Nvidia’s latest SEC filing).

For its part, China has become more restrictive about its homegrown tech firms’ purchases of Nvidia chips, banning purchases of H20 chips this fall. The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Beijing would also limit Chinese companies’ access to Nvidia’s H200 chips.

Shares in PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), the operator of PNC Bank, fell by roughly 3% in premarket trading after the bank began allowing high-net-worth clients to directly trade bitcoin (BTC-USD).

While PNC’s offering has been in the works since the summer, its launch comes on a bad stretch for the cryptocurrency environment, which has seen bitcoin shed more than 13% in the past month. The digital currency lost roughly 1.4% Tuesday morning.

The move is part of a partnership between PNC and the cryptocurrency brokerage platform Coinbase Global (COIN), which has offered similar services to a host of financial institutions. Under the deal, eligible PNC clients can get direct exposure to cryptocurrencies, and PNC provides Coinbase with banking services that include facilitating bitcoin trades, according to Bloomberg.

PNC has previously given clients access to passive ETFs with exposure to bitcoin and ether (ETH-USD), but the new offering under its Coinbase partnership is the first direct digital currency trading regime the bank has offered.

In September, Morgan Stanley introduced direct crypto trading on its retail platform, E-Trade, through a partnership with crypto firm Zerohash.

The Campbell’s Company (CPB) stock wavered after the food company reported declining sales and earnings compared to the previous year.

In the company’s fiscal first quarter, net sales decreased 3% year over year to $2.67 billion, while earnings per share declined to $0.65. Wall Street consensus estimates were for $2.65 billion in revenue and $0.71 in earnings per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The Meals & Beverages segment experienced a 4% decline in sales year over year, while sales in the Snacks business decreased by 2%.

“Consumers remain intentional in their shopping behaviors with at-home-cooking trends continuing to benefit our brands within our Meals & Beverages portfolio that deliver quality, convenience and value,” CEO Mick Beekhuizen said. “While our Snacks business continues to weather category softness, our brands remain highly relevant.”

The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance for earnings per share to decline 12% to 18% to a range of $2.40 to $2.55.

Year to date, the stock is down 28%.

Read more live coverage of corporate earnings.

Economic data: BLS releases Sept. & Oct JOLTS data; NFIB small business optimism (November);

Earnings: AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), SailPoint (SAIL), GameStop (GME), The Campbell’s Company (CPB), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), Braze (BRZE), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:

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Trump’s Nvidia shift hands Xi an opening on security curbs

Fed may need QE if markets lack faith in Powell’s successor: Man

The median home in the US costs $415K. Here’s what that buys you

Tariffs latest: Trump threatens Mexico hike, unveils $12B farmer bailout

China to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump approval

Apple’s slow AI pace a strength as market grows weary of spending

Google hit by EU antitrust probe over content use by AI tools

Why bitcoin’s 2025 rollercoaster may end on a low

Money market funds see big inflows ahead of Fed decision

Pfizer (PFE) stock climbed 1% before the bell following an announcement that it has entered into an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma, a subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (600196.SS).

Ares (ARES) stock rose 8% during premarket trading on Tuesday after the asset manager was included in the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova (K).

CVS (CVS) stock rose 3% before the bell on Tuesday after forecasting 2026 profit above Wall Street estimates.

Toll Brothers (TOL) stock fell over 4% in premarket after the high-end homebuilder’s quarterly results showed promotional activity weighing on margins and an earnings miss.

For the fiscal fourth quarter, Toll Brothers reported earnings per share of $4.58, compared to estimates of $4.89, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue came in at $3.41 billion, compared to estimates of $3.31 billion.

The homebuilder saw promotional activity weigh on its home sale margins. Toll Brothers reported a gross margin of 26%, compared to estimates of 26.5%. Despite lower mortgage rates, homebuilders are facing competitive pressures as they look to entice reluctant buyers off the sidelines.

Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley noted “soft demand” and a “choppy” housing market this year, though he emphasized that the luxury business remains differentiated.

Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports:

President Trump is hitting the road this week to address Americans’ affordability concerns head-on. But it’s a trip that comes as his rhetoric and actions often appear at odds with each other.

On one front, Trump and his team continue to dismiss the sense prevalent among many Americans that everyday costs are becoming harder to manage.

… On the other hand, Trump and his team have taken a series of actions in an apparent acknowledgement that affordability is more than a media creation.

Recent weeks have seen the president reverse some of his tariffs on grocery store items. He has also floated ideas like $2,000 tariff rebate checks and even 50-year mortgages to lower month-to-month costs.

… Trump’s approach clearly hasn’t helped his poll numbers, which offer a near-daily reminder that Americans have a sour opinion of his handling of the economy. The RealClearPolitics poll average of Trump’s approval rating on the economy stood at just 39.8% approval on Monday, compared to 57.6% who said they are unhappy with the direction of things.

The issue could be the president’s most glaring political vulnerability and a central threat to the GOP’s midterm election chances.

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Bloomberg reports:

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