Despite three consecutive years of 15%+ gains from the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), most investors believe the good times aren’t over yet.
The Motley Fool’s 2026 Investor Outlook and Predictions Report shows that the majority of investors expect further gains in U.S. stocks this year, powered again by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
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Expectations for positive returns in the new year aren’t unusual. What was a bit surprising, however, was how few people expected any kind of significant decline along the way. This comes even though a large number of respondents cited recession and inflation risk as key factors to watch in the new year.
Let’s take a look at some of the survey’s major findings and how you can use them to shape your own plans for 2026.
The report’s key takeaway shows that investors have bullish, albeit relatively modest, expectations for the current year.
In all, approximately 68% of investors expect the market to produce positive returns in 2026. Those in the younger Gen Z and millennial generations could help drive this growth. Roughly 68% and 64% of these groups, respectively, plan to invest more this year.
However, most investors don’t expect the big double-digit returns that the equity markets have seen over the past few years. Only 11% of those surveyed expect to see a fourth consecutive year of 10%+ returns. The bulk of responders, about 57% in total, think stocks will return between 4% and 9% this year.
Overall, investors remain in a bullish mood, but expectations are relatively contained. As geopolitical and affordability concerns loom over a U.S. economy that still appears to be in relatively good shape, there could be a belief that AI-driven market gains could start to moderate.
Historically, the market experiences a 10% correction roughly once every two to three years.
The last few times this occurred were:
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2025 (the lead-up to “Liberation Day” tariffs)
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2022 (inflation-driven bear market)
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2020 (COVID-19 pandemic)
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2018 (fear of a potential Europe recession)
Survey respondents don’t seem particularly concerned that we’ll experience another one in 2026. Only 3% of those asked think we’ll see a correction this year.
