Markets today: Global shares surge, echoing a rally on Wall Street as oil prices sinks back to $90

Markets update

• Canadian stock index futures edged higher on Tuesday, ​as a rally in ‌gold cushioned the falling oil prices. March futures on S&P/TSX composite index gained 0.4 per cent.
• U.S. stock index futures were steady on Tuesday, as investors hoped for a quicker resolution to the Middle East conflict that has led to a spike ⁠in ​energy prices and stoked inflation worries, following President Donald Trump’s comments on the war. Dow E-minis were up 26 points, or 0.05 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 0.75 points, or 0.01 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 12 points, or 0.05 per cent.
• Brent futures were down US$6.75, or 6.8 per cent, to US$92.21 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down US$6.41, or 6.8 per cent, to US$88.36 a barrel. Both contracts fell as much as 11 per cent earlier.
• Spot ​gold rose 0.8 per cent to US$5,178.60 per ounce, as ‌of 7:17 a.m. ET, after gaining over 1 per cent earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.7 per cent to US$5,188.60.

03/10/26 08:17

Morgan Stanley strategist sees ‘underpriced and increasing risks around U.S. debt and deficits’

– Scott Barlow

Morgan Stanley head of global investment office Lisa Shalett is actively picking stocks but seems to have one eye on the sell button,

“Over the past 80 years, war-induced oil shocks have not been kind to equities, as nearly every episode has catalyzed a recession and market sell-off. Even the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine coincided with a U.S. equity bear market. With that in mind, reaction to the attack on Iran has seemed like a nonevent, with the S&P 500 still within 4 per cent of its all-time high … Although the earnings outlook remains solid, and we are aggressive stock-pickers for now, we see underpriced and increasing risks around US debt and deficits, a still-fragile consumer and potential for nonenergy inflation pressures. Odds of a boom-bust scenario in the next 12 months are rising. This is a time for hyper-vigilance, balancing offence and defence. Consider focusing on earnings realization versus overhyped themes in the U.S., while playing offence with oversold large-cap core equities with quality attributes—including select mega-cap financials, health care, Magnificent Seven and software stocks. Industrials and materials remain cyclical beneficiaries funded by consumer sectors … Even more important than rotation and positioning is the backdrop of energy markets themselves, which have been oversupplied for much of the past four years. The implication is that although Brent crude oil has shot up more than 40 per cent, that’s about half the price action of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 … U.S. Treasuries are already sounding some caution, with two- and 10-year yields up close to 20 basis points over the past week, suggesting possible risks of inflation, overheating growth and renewed pressure on debt and deficits, given the costs of a potentially prolonged conflict. Beyond that, the GIC has been watching the fragile U.S. consumer with a keen eye, noting that while tax refunds are coming, household ability to absorb a jump in gasoline prices at the pump is limited”

03/10/26 08:09

Aramco posts drop in annual profit, announces first buyback

Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, reported a 12-per-cent drop in annual profit mainly due to lower crude prices, but announced it would repurchase up to US$3-billion worth of shares in its first-ever buyback.

The results were released on Tuesday at a highly volatile time for global oil markets as the ⁠U.S.-Israeli war ​on Iran has led to a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and forced several regional producers to curb output.

Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the conflict continued to disrupt traffic through the vital shipping artery.

Aramco, which has been forced to reroute ships to the Red Sea, will conduct the buyback program over the next 18 months. Until now, it has relied on ​its massive dividend payouts to reward shareholders. It will ultimately sell the repurchased shares back to its ‌employees, CFO Ziad Al-Murshed told analysts on a call.

Oil prices were around 15 per cent lower in 2025 than the previous year at an average of about US$68 a barrel, which has pushed other oil majors such as BP, TotalEnergies and Equinor to remove or slash share buyback programs.

– Reuters

03/10/26 07:59

Strong results continue for Scotia’s recommended stocks in yield-heavy utilities and energy infrastructure sectors

– Scott Barlow

Middle East situation will not interrupt rally in income oriented utilities and energy infrastructure sectors, says Scotiabank’s Robert Hope,,

“On balance, Q4/25 results showcased a highly robust infrastructure sector, with the majority of our coverage universe exceeding estimates. Following the quarter, consensus estimates moved up for the utility and midstream groups and down for the remainder of our coverage sub-sectors. ACO.X-T, CU-T, BEP-N, GEI-T and NPI-T saw the most meaningful positive estimate revisions. The key take-away for us from the quarter is that the opportunity set for the infrastructure group continues to deepen. The utility group is adding to their capital plans, power companies are making progress on securing data center off-take agreements, and the pipeline group is seeing demand for natural gas move higher. Management teams remain disciplined and are allocating capital to projects with the best risk-adjusted returns. Oil pricing has moved higher following the start of Operation Epic Fury. We see KEY-T, ALA-T and PPL-T as benefiting most from higher pricing over the medium term, though we have not yet adjusted our estimates. While interest rates have increased we note the utility group is holding in as investors look to defensive sectors.

“Our overall favourite names are ALA-T, AQN-N, BIP-N, CPX-T, ENB-T, KEY-T and TRP-T.”

03/10/26 07:52

Iran conflict interrupts recovery in global industrial stocks

– Scott Barlow

The RBC global equity team published a report emphasizing the Iran situation as changing threatening the usual course of the market cycle,

“Prior to the Feb-28 start of the Iran conflict, there had been a number of cyclical rallies year-to-date across the industrial sub-sectors. There were encouraging short-cycle greenshoots like the ISM/New Orders seeing their second month above 50 and industrial distributors like FAST reporting 13-per-cent growth in Feb. But with the escalation of the Middle East conflict, we have seen a textbook-style rotation into defensive/quality names in the past week, begging the question how sustainable the cyclical rally will be amid geopolitical angst, spiking oil prices, a new Fed Chair, re-cast tariffs, and supply chain volatility. CEO confidence could be an early casualty if the war with Iran drags on, resulting in project delays/cancellations … North America auto production is estimated to be down roughly 1.5-2.0 per cent this year, compared to a flattish China and slightly positive Europe on pent- up demand … Chemicals and Commodities are also seeing investors bidding up the sector, with investors historically buying the group way well before earnings recoveries materialize. Since the Iran conflict, higher-quality and Commodities companies have outperformed. Industrials on the RBC Top 30 Global Ideas for 2026 List. United States: DuPont, Moody’s, Xylem, Air Products and Chemicals. Europe: Safran, Schneider. Canada: RB Global, International Paper”

03/10/26 07:42

Gold rises 1% on easing inflation worries, dollar at one-week low

Gold rose ​1 per cent on Tuesday, as inflation fears receded after oil fell following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the Middle East war could “end soon”, while a weaker U.S. dollar and easing Treasury yields also provided support.

Spot ​gold rose 0.8 per cent to US$5,178.60 per ounce, as ‌of 7:17 a.m. ET, after gaining over 1 per cent earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.7 per cent to US$5,188.60.

“The recovery in the stock markets also ended up providing respite for gold because of less margin requirements elsewhere, while a ‌lower U.S. ​dollar and easing ‌Treasury yields are definitely positive for gold markets (today) as well,” said Ricardo Evangelista, ​ActivTrades analyst.

Stocks rallied, and oil prices plunged ⁠by more than 7 per cent after Trump’s remarks, easing concerns about ⁠prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

– Reuters

03/10/26 06:31

Elon Musk’s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry

Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker SpaceX is leaning toward listing its shares on the Nasdaq for what could rank as the biggest initial public offering of all time, according to four people familiar with the company’s thinking.

SpaceX wants early ⁠inclusion on ​the Nasdaq 100 index , making it a necessary condition for a potential listing on the tech-heavy exchange, two of the people said. Its plans could still change, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are confidential.

Reuters has previously reported that SpaceX is planning an IPO, as early as June.

The New York ​Stock Exchange is also competing for the listing, and neither exchange has ‌been informed of a decision either way, multiple people said.

The Nasdaq 100, owned by Nasdaq Inc, is seen as a premier blue-chip index by large institutional investors and serves as a barometer for the health of most of the world’s biggest publicly traded names, including megacap technology stocks like Nvidia, Apple and Amazon.com.

The Nasdaq 100 gained about 21 per cent last year and is slightly lower so far ‌this year. Nasdaq ​proposed a new rule last month ‌that could potentially speed up the addition of newly listed megacap companies to the Nasdaq 100 index.

Read more: Here

– Reuters

03/10/26 06:27

Wall Street futures rise on hopes for early end to Middle East conflict

U.S. stock index futures ticked up on Tuesday, as investors hoped for a quicker resolution to the Middle East conflict that has led to a spike ⁠in energy ​prices and stoked inflation concerns, following President Donald Trump’s comments on the war.

Crude and natural gas prices eased from the worrying US$120 per barrel mark after Trump said on Monday that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could be nearing an end, ahead of his ​initial estimate of a four-to-five-week timeline.

However, the enthusiasm came with ‌an element of caution as Iran said it would continue its oil blockade through the region, to which Trump promised stronger military retaliation. Energy producers in the Middle East are yet to resume production full-scale and shipping costs are likely to be elevated for a while.

Still, lower energy prices on ‌Tuesday came ​as a relief to beaten-down travel ‌stocks. Airlines American and Delta gained over 1 per cent each in premarket trading, while cruise companies ​Carnival and Royal Caribbean were marginally higher.

Energy companies such ⁠as Occidental lost 2.5 per cent, while ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil were marginally lower.

Surging crude prices ⁠since the start of the conflict had worried investors that the U.S. economy could face stagflation and complicate ​the work of the Federal Reserve, as data also suggested the labor market was weakening.

Traders have priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut around September, according to LSEG-compiled data.

At 5:14 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 211 points, or 0.44 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 29.75 points, or 0.44 per cent. Nasdaq ⁠100 E-minis were up 134.25 points, or 0.54 per cent.

– Reuters

03/10/26 06:24

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square files for U.S. IPO

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square filed ​for U.S. initial public offerings of his hedge fund ‌and a new fund on Tuesday, looking set to join a small club of publicly traded alternative asset managers.

The move marks a major milestone for Ackman, the activist investor who has established himself as one of ⁠Wall Street’s most-watched ​investors. He is known for pushing for changes in companies such as Chipotle Mexican Grill and railroad Canadian Pacific.

Ackman previously attempted to take the new fund, Pershing Square USA, public in 2024, but scrapped the launch days before it was slated to begin trading.

Investors in the new fund ​will receive 20 shares in Pershing Square for every 100 shares ‌purchased in the new fund as a sweetener.

Pershing Square USA currently expects to raise between US$5-billion and US$10-billion in the combined transaction. It is selling shares at US$50 apiece.

The fund has secured US$2.8-billion in commitments from U.S. and international institutional investors such as family offices, pension funds, insurance companies, and ultra-high-net-worth investors.

Pershing ​Square will ⁠list on the New ‌York Stock Exchange under the ​trading symbol “PS”.

– Reuters

03/10/26 06:07

TSX futures edge up as gold gains counter sharp pullback in oil prices

​Canadian stock index futures edged higher on Tuesday, ​as a rally in ‌gold cushioned the falling oil prices after President Trump suggested the Middle East war may soon wind down, keeping ⁠investors ​wary in the resource-heavy market.

March futures on S&P/TSX composite index gained 0.4 per cent, as of 5:57 a.m. ET.

U.S. stock futures edged up Tuesday as hopes ​for a quicker Middle East conflict ‌resolution eased energy-driven inflation fears.

Toronto’s benchmark index closed higher yesterday after briefly hitting its lowest intraday level since February 6.

– Reuters

03/10/26 05:50

Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

– S.R. Slobodian

Global markets rallied ​as investor sentiment was ‌lifted after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war in Middle East could come to ⁠a ​quick end.

But hopes of a speedy resolution to ‌the conflict were tempered by defiant statements from Iran’s military indicating it would continue fighting.

Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major North American markets closed up yesterday on Trump’s comments.

TSX futures followed sentiment higher.

In Canada, investors are getting results from Transcontinental Inc. and Altius Minerals Corp.

On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Oracle Corp. and Franco-Nevada Corp.

“The toning down of President Trump’s rhetoric, from demanding full surrender to declaring the ‌mission ‘very complete’, is a ​welcome development that should help settle ‌nerves for today’s session in Asia, at least,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney.

Read more: Here

03/10/26 05:33

Global shares surge, echoing a rally on Wall Street

Global shares rebounded Tuesday from their sharp declines a day before as global investors wagered that the war with Iran may not last too long.

But the gains fell far short of losses Monday, when oil prices neared US$120 per barrel before falling back to about US$90. U.S. shares were set to rise, with Dow futures up 0.4 per cent at 47,970.00. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4 per cent to 6,830.75.

Helping to assuage investors’ fears, U.S. President Donald Trump told CBS News he thinks “the war is very complete, pretty much.” He also made other comments that seemed to threaten intensified action against Iran if it makes any “attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply.”

France’s CAC 40 added 1.9 per cent in early trading to 54,248.39, while Germany’s DAX surged 2.4 per cent to 23,966.97. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 1.6 per cent to 10,410.08.

In Asia, Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 2.9 per cent to finish at 54,248.39 after the government released revised economic data that showed Japan’s economy grew slightly faster than initially estimated in the final quarter of last year, boosted by solid business investments.

The economy expanded at an annual pace of 1.3 per cent. The initial estimate was a much weaker 0.2 per cent.

“Today is the rebound, obviously positive comments from President Trump overnight, we’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the war,“ said Neil Newman, a managing director and head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan.

”So volatility is going to remain with us but things are certainly looking a lot brighter today,” he said.

– The Associated Press

03/10/26 05:08

U.S. dollar rally stalls on hopes of an easing in Iran war, but wariness reigns

The U.S. dollar took a breather on Tuesday as investors swung ​between hopes for a de-escalation in the U.S.-Israeli ‌war on Iran and concerns that any such optimism could be premature.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could end well before the timeline he initially laid out, but threatened to escalate attacks should ⁠Tehran block ​oil shipments from the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards dismissed Trump’s remarks as “nonsense” and said the blockade would continue until attacks from the U.S. and Israel end.

However, equities advanced and oil prices retreated from over three-year highs, underscoring how eager investors were to ​seize on any hint of good news.

The safe-haven dollar weakened ‌0.1 per cent to $1.1652 against the euro and 0.1 per cent to 157.49 yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, fell 0.3 per cent to a one-week low of 98.6.

“What will matter most is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a restart of production across the Middle East. Until ‌investors receive ​headlines on that score, we ‌doubt the dollar is going to quickly hand back all the gains made over the last ​two weeks,” said ING’s global head of markets Chris ⁠Turner.

– Reuters

03/10/26 05:04

Oil sinks 7% as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation

Oil prices plummeted 7% on Tuesday after soaring to a more than three-year high in the previous session ⁠as U.S. ​President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies.

Brent futures fell US$6.79, or 6.9 per cent, to US$92.17 a barrel at 4:40 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down US$6.55, or 6.9 per cent, to US$88.22 a barrel. Both contracts fell as much as 11 per cent ​earlier before paring some losses.

Oil surged past US$100 a barrel ‌on Monday to the highest since mid-2022, as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers during the expanding U.S.-Israeli war on Iran stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies.

Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide, ‌easing concerns about ​supply.

Trump said on Monday in ‌a CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was “very complete” and Washington was “very far ahead” ​of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame.

“Clearly Trump’s ⁠comments about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the ⁠upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today,” said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS ​Bank, adding that the market was underappreciating risks at these levels for Brent.

“Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed in terms of ground realities,” he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades.

– Reuters