8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday: S&P 500 Levels to Watch

Palantir

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a higher start to a holiday-shortened trading week.

1. Beaten-down stocks looked set to edge higher on Monday, although the gains may not last as investors carried on fretting about geopolitical uncertainty as the Iran war entered its second month…. Recent history suggests that the indexes will struggle to maintain their gains, given oil prices are higher. (Barron’s)

That prompted Morgan Stanley to downgrade global equities to “equal weight” from “overweight,” while raising U.S. Treasuries and cash to “overweight” from “equal weight.” Morgan Stanley retained a preference for U.S. stocks compared to other regions, given higher earnings-per-share growth. More on that as you take in #2 below, and “higher” doesn’t necessarily mean as high as was expected at the start of 2026.

The Pro Portfolio’s good friend Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital, called 6200 on the S&P 500 a “level to watch” but also noted that a “more panic-driven sell-off” could lead the index to the 6050 area. Woods notes that would equate to a drop of around 14% drop from the peak and reminds folks that “we get one 10% correction on average a year and the average drawdown is just about – you guessed it, -14%.”

Let’s remember, too, that while the RSI level for the S&P 500 when we closed out last week was below 30, a bounce this morning doesn’t necessarily mean things have changed. So, despite the positive indication of U.S. equity futures this morning, we’ll remain on the sidelines for now, focusing more on our shopping list at least until there is greater certainty that the conflict is headed toward firm peace talks and a real resolution is in sight.

2. Oil prices surged anew on Monday as the war in Iran entered its 31st day, with little visibility on whether the conflict is nearing an end or escalating… While it’s not obvious that a deal to end the conflict will be struck just yet, “it’s becoming clear that markets are expecting an extended period of high oil prices, with stagflationary implications for the global economy,” Jim Reid, head of global macro research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note on Monday. (MarketWatch) In conversations with more than three dozen oil and gas traders, executives, brokers, shippers and advisers over the last week, one message was repeated over and over: The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation… While gasoline and diesel prices have jumped in the US, many in the industry expect America to be one of the last places to be hit… But it’s not just fuel: petroleum is used to make plastics, which are used in just about everything. (Bloomberg)

“Duration” and “follow through” remain the key words for March and potentially how we begin April, but another phrase to consider is “waiting for the other shoe to drop,” when it comes to quarterly earnings and guidance. As we explained in Friday’s Weekly Roundup, that is another reason for us to proceed with caution in the weeks ahead.

3. Donald Trump has said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, as the US sends thousands of troops to the Middle East. (FT) The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, U.S. officials said, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East for what could become a dangerous new phase of the war should President Donald Trump choose to escalate. (The Washington Post) As a diplomatic effort being facilitated by Pakistan toward ending the war moved ahead, Trump said Iran had agreed to allow 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday as “a sign of respect.” At the same time, with 2,500 U.S. Marines now in the region and a similar sized contingent on its way, he raised the idea of taking Iran’s Kharg Island. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t,” (AP)

Conflicting messages are likely to foster uncertainty in the market as the countdown to Trump’s April 6 deadline continues. Odds are that means market volatility will remain with us this week, but given our comments above, the smart move will be to restrain ourselves until more meaningful developments are had.

4. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Monday, March 30, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET. He will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, Massachusetts. (Federal Reserve)

Once again, Powell will be in the spotlight, and given all that has unfolded, it’s not that surprising. More than likely the Fed Chair will get a question or three about the current environment, but we should not expect any meaningful changes to his recent post Fed policy meeting comments. He will likely note where oil prices are, and we would not be surprised if he shares our view on “duration” and “follow through,” but we’ll be parsing his words to see if they have a more hawkish tone. It’s also possible Powell simply reiterates that for now the Fed is in a “wait and learn mode,” and that means focusing on next week’s March facing data.

5. Palantir Technologies Inc. today announced the renewal and expansion of its long‑standing partnership with Stellantis. The new five‑year agreement continues a collaboration that began in 2016, supporting Stellantis in the ongoing industrialization and secure use of data and artificial intelligence across the company. Under the renewed partnership, Stellantis will broaden its use of Palantir Foundry and begin deploying the Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) in select business functions and regions. (Business Wire)

This continues Palantir’s (PLTR) string of recent announcements, and reaffirms our stance on its position in the Portfolio, but also that AI adoption continues and its usage is expanding in the enterprise. Amid the market turmoil, it’s signals like this that help us keep our focus.

6. Sysco the biggest U.S. food distributor to restaurants, hospitals and schools, is nearing a deal to buy family-owned Restaurant Depot for roughly $29 billion, including debt, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal is meant to help Sysco expand into the high-margin and growing cash-and-carry distribution model and serve more customers locally. Restaurant Depot’s business sells small-restaurant owners and other independent businesses memberships allowing them to visit one of the company’s warehouses any time they are running short to pick up food supplies that same day. It cuts out the middleman and offers more affordable prices. (WSJ)

We view this as a reminder that, despite all the headlines we are reading, companies are still grinding it out, serving customers, and contemplating strategies to expand their offerings, fill in product or technology gaps, and extend their footprints. This expected transaction and its hefty price tag is also a reminder that M&A activity remains vibrant, and it keeps us bullish on a few of the Portfolio’s holdings that benefit from continued strength in investment banking activity.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Americas Gold and Silver Corporation (USAS), Fermi (FRMI) . PM – Virgin Galactic ( (SPCE) ).