Stock Market Today (LIVE): Ceasefire Holds but Hormuz Tolls and a 3.3% Inflation Reading Give Investors Fresh Reasons for Caution

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TSMC Revenue Rockets to Record High

10:05 am — TSM +3.2%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM +2.73%) reported record first-quarter revenue of $35.6 billion, a 35% year-on-year surge that cruised past analyst estimates. As the sole manufacturer of the world’s most advanced processors, TSMC remains the primary beneficiary of massive infrastructure spending by Nvidia (NVDA +1.93%) and Apple (AAPL +0.46%). Despite supply chain jitters and memory shortages slowing the PC market, TSMC’s AI segment is doing the heavy lifting. Analysts credit aggressive price hikes on cutting-edge nodes for the beat, with projected gross margins potentially hitting a staggering 64% when full earnings drop April 16.

• The Foundry Monopoly: As tech giants like Alphabet (GOOG +0.20%) and Arm Holdings (ARM +3.07%) pivot to designing custom internal silicon, they increasingly find themselves tethered to TSMC’s unique manufacturing capabilities.
• Bellwether Watch: Markets now turn to next week’s results from ASML (ASML +2.69%); the Dutch lithography giant provides the essential machinery TSMC requires to maintain its lead over rivals like Intel (INTC +1.30%).

Top of the Morning

9:05 am

• Why is this important? To attract investors and potentially make itself an attractive IPO candidate, OpenAI has to prove its ability to create various revenue streams. There are concerns about ads on ChatGPT, since people share a lot of personal information with it, but even so — the opportunity to hyper-target consumers will be attractive to advertisers.

Speaking of concerns … OpenAI has seen a bit of a backlash recently, and a recent NPR article suggests that is perhaps part of the reason why OpenAI recently purchased a streaming talk show.

• Why is this important? The streaming talk show is known as the “SportsCenter for Silicon Valley.” According to the NPR article, OpenAI aims to maintain the show’s editorial independence … but they’d also like it to feature “constructive conversation” on AI.

This isn’t the first time a company has tried to manage their brand, and it won’t be the last. The question is, will it work and help sway some of the more critical opinions on AI?

6:00 am — COST unchanged in pre-market trading

What’s the best thing at Costco (COST 2.28%)?

In a world of rising inflation leading to higher costs for pretty much everything, it’s nice to know that Costco’s $1.50 hot dog plus soda combo has stayed the same price for years. Since 1985, in fact, so that’s 41 years and counting! And it will remain that price going forward, according to current CEO, Ron Vachris. “The hot dog price will not change as long as I’m around,” he recently said.

Yay!

It’s a big thing for a company that sells more hot dogs than Major League Baseball. Some 245 million last year. (Wow!) Some things should not change.

However, Costco’s not dumb. They don’t want to lose a bunch of money selling them at a loss, especially with numbers like that. So over the years, Costco has made some changes.

First, they now make their own. The dogs used to be Hebrew National and Sinai 48 dogs, but now they’re Kirkland dogs (Costco’s in house brand). These are made at two locations, in California and Illinois. This has helped reduce costs.

Second, the soda, originally a 12-ounce can, was changed to a 20-ounce fountain drink. That’s actually cheaper for the company, especially as people like to add lots of ice, which costs next to nothing compared to syrup.

Will Costco ever raise the price? Hopefully not. And not if founder Jim Sinegal (who’s still around, by the way) has anything to say about it. He reportedly told previous CEO Craig Jelinek in 2018 – who was looking to raise the price of the combo – that, “If you raise the [price of the] f***-ing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out.”

Motivation indeed to keep a corporate icon – something that members truly treasure – intact. Long may it last!

Opening Bell

9:30 am

The S&P 500 is pacing for its best weekly performance since November, climbing over 3% as a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds. While President Trump issued a fresh warning against Iran charging “tanker fees” in the Strait of Hormuz, the market appears to be looking past the immediate energy shock. Analysts suggest the relief rally is sustainable, betting that energy prices will gradually descend over the next six months. This constructive outlook is bolstered by tame “core” inflation data, which signals that underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient despite the geopolitical volatility that spiked headline CPI to 3.3%.

War-Driven Energy Spike Jolts Inflation

9:10 am

March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects a stark “supply shock” as the headline inflation rate jumped to 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February. This surge was almost entirely driven by a 10.9% monthly explosion in energy costs, with gasoline prices skyrocketing 21.2% due to geopolitical conflict. Conversely, Core CPI — excluding food and energy — remained remarkably calm at 0.2% monthly, suggesting that underlying economic demand isn’t yet overheating. This divergence complicates the Federal Reserve’s path, likely delaying interest rate cuts despite the cooling core numbers.

• Supermarket Stalemate: A 0.2% dip in “food at home” suggests the brutal cycle of grocery inflation is finally breaking, potentially aiding margins for retailers like Walmart (WMT 1.41%) and Target (TGT 0.98%).

• The Shelter Floor: Persistent 0.3% growth in housing costs continues to act as an inflationary anchor, meaning the Fed may stay hawkish until the rental market shows more aggressive signs of cooling.

CarMax Adds Two Directors to End Starboard Fight

8:15 am — KMX unchanged in pre-market trading

CarMax (KMX +1.39%) reached a settlement with activist investor Starboard Value on Thursday, agreeing to appoint industry veterans Bill Cobb and Jim Kessler to its board. Starboard, which recently disclosed a $350 million stake, withdrew its own director nominations following the deal, signaling a truce with the used-car retailer. The shakeup comes as new CEO Keith Barr–who recently joined from InterContinental Hotels Group–faces pressure to modernize the company’s digital sales platform and overhaul its pricing structure. Starboard CEO Jeff Smith expressed confidence that the refreshed leadership can “drive substantial value creation” as the company battles intense competition and high interest rates.

• Strategic Pivot: The addition of Kessler, CEO of RB Global, and Cobb, CEO of Frontdoor, specifically targets Starboard’s demands for improved operational efficiency and a more sophisticated digital customer experience.
• Activist Momentum: This settlement ends a potential proxy contest and suggests management is aligning with Starboard’s push to cut costs and streamline the used-vehicle shopping process to regain lost market share.

Sezzle Director Quits Over Governance Rift

8:00 am — SEZL unchanged in pre-market trading

An 8-K filing revealed Sezzle (SEZL 13.08%) director Karen Webster resigned over governance disagreements with management. The company appointed Bryan Hunt to replace her amid investor concerns about internal tensions.

• Webster exits citing strategic differences: Director Karen Webster resigned effective April 3, 2026, citing growing differences with management over company direction and governance decisions.
• Hunt appointed with committee compensation: Bryan Hunt, a Relevance Ventures partner, was appointed as independent director with $65,000 annual retainer plus committee fees totaling up to $16,250.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — CRWD +2.20%, NET +0.96% in pre-market trading

Cybersecurity companies sold off on Thursday, with CrowdStrike (CRWD 6.42%) and Cloudflare (NET 12.69%) closing over 7% lower, as renewed fears around AI disruption in the sector took hold following a new Anthropic model release.

• The S&P 500 software and services index fell 2.6%, now down 25.5% this year: As reported in Wednesday’s Breakfast News, Anthropic announced a new release able to detect flaws in operating systems. It has already detected countless flaws in big tech platforms, causing concerns around existing cybersecurity provisions.
• Anthropic plans to further disrupt existing AI supply chain: Reuters reports the business is exploring the potential to design its own chips, which ultimately could diminish the need for units from existing suppliers including Alphabet (GOOG +0.20%) and Amazon (AMZN +2.49%).

Lilly Slides in India While Novo Stands Firm

7:25 am — LLY +0.19%, NVO +1.76% in pre-market trading

Eli Lilly (LLY 1.03%) saw its dominant position in the Indian weight-loss market falter in March, with its category share dropping from 61% to 56%. This erosion comes as India–home to a massive diabetic and obese population–witnesses a flood of 26 new generic brands following the patent expiration of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk (NVO +1.79%) products. Surprisingly, Novo Nordisk maintained a steady 25% market share despite the influx of cheaper local alternatives. Analysts suggest Lilly’s premium-priced tirzepatide brands are proving more vulnerable to price-conscious Indian consumers opting for newly affordable, locally produced semaglutide copies.

• Generic Disruption: The rapid entry of 13 Indian pharmaceutical firms into the GLP-1 space highlights the “world’s pharmacy” capability to scale production, potentially serving as a blueprint for future global pricing pressure on blockbuster obesity drugs.
• Tirzepatide Under Fire: As semaglutide becomes a low-cost commodity in major emerging markets, Eli Lilly faces an uphill battle justifying its brand premium, potentially forcing aggressive pricing shifts to protect its international growth runway.

ICYMI: Thursday’s Scoreboard

6:15 am — COKE unchanged in pre-market trading

Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE 1.97%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

TSM Revenue Jumps 35% on AI Demand

5:00 am — TSM +1.76% in pre-market trading

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.73%) was little changed ahead of the opening bell after releasing Q1 revenue numbers, with a strong 35% gain versus the same period last year, indicating continued AI application demand.

• Upbeat figure ahead of full earnings release next week: The detailed results are due out April 16, but the headline revenue figure beat market expectations, providing optimism for investors that financial momentum is strong.
• “Appetite for high-performing growth stocks with AI exposure remains voracious”: In January, Fool contributing analyst Dan Caplinger reviewed TSM’s latest earnings, noting the business is setting “a high bar for its future performance” as it “anticipates full-year 2026 sales to rise nearly 30% in U.S. dollar terms.”

Before the Opening Bell

4:30 am

Stock futures remained flat Friday as investors weighed a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire against new complications in the Strait of Hormuz. While a two-week pause in direct combat holds, President Trump has renewed threats after Tehran began tolling tankers attempting to traverse the waterway. However, a potential diplomatic breakthrough emerged as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and pursue a “historic” peace deal. Amid this geopolitical uncertainty, Wall Street is pivoting to fresh data showing the March Consumer Price Index surged 0.9% month-over-month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.3% as war-related energy costs filter into the economy.

• Energy Market Friction: The introduction of Iranian transit tolls effectively maintains a “de facto” blockade on cheap energy flows, pressuring global supply chains and keeping crude prices volatile despite the cessation of active bombing.
• Monetary Policy Outlook: Hotter-than-expected CPI figures increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, creating a challenging environment for high-valuation AI infrastructure leaders like CoreWeave (CRWV +7.66%) following their recent $21 billion Meta (META +1.00%) deal.

This article was created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool’s insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Alicia Alfiere, MBA has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Costco Wholesale. Jim Mueller, CFA has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Walmart and has the following options: long January 2027 $215 calls on Amazon, long January 2028 $230 calls on Amazon, short January 2027 $225 calls on Amazon, and short January 2028 $240 calls on Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, CarMax, Cloudflare, Costco Wholesale, CrowdStrike, Intel, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, Sezzle, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Target, and Walmart and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.