Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
- It was a wild week in financial markets.
- US stocks clawed back nearly all of their losses since the start of the Iran war.
- Oil prices and Treasury yields dropped as traders reassessed the macro outlook.
The TACO trade took investors on a wild ride this week.
Investors cheered after a ceasefire deal with Iran was announced Tuesday evening, soothing some of the deepest anxieties about higher oil prices and taking one of investors’ worst-case scenarios off the table: that an extended conflict could heat up inflation, hit consumers, and risk plunging the US into a recession.
Markets are still grappling with the effects of the recent oil spike, with inflation accelerating 3.3% in March. But investors are mostly relieved, with stocks rising and oil and bond yields dropping.
Here were the biggest moves investors saw in the week.
US stocks soar
It was a roller coaster ride for much of the week, but Wednesday’s ceasefire-fueled gains were locked in by Friday’s close.
Stocks surged midweek, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending Wednesday’s session higher by over 1,300 points. The S&P 500 gained more than 2%, and the Nasdaq jumped by almost 3%.
The index has recovered nearly all its losses since the start of the Iran war, trading about 1% below its levels in late February.
Notable move: The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.6%, its biggest weekly gain since November.
Oil prices plunge
Alongside the surge in stocks, oil saw saw big moves in the opposite direction. Both Brent crude and US oil dropped below $100 a barrel, a key psychological threshold that markets have watched closely throughout the war.
Brent ended the week at $94.50 a barrel, while WTI ended at $95.98.
Notable moves: Wednesday marked the biggest one-day drop for WTI oil since 2020, while Brent crude logged the largest weekly decline since 2022.
Treasury yields slide
The 10-year US Treasury yield tumbled from 4.34% on Tuesday afternoon to 4.24% at the low on Wednesday, before edging back up to end the week at 4.31%.
Yields fell as investors recalibrated expectations for higher inflation and interest rates. With the war paused while negotiations take place, investors hope maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can begin to normalize, lowering the prospects for a prolonged and damaging energy crunch.
The odds that the Fed will cut rates at least once in 2026 jumped as high as 30% this week as bond yields tumbled.
