Trump Faces Iran Deadline After S&P 500 Record: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers and following the S&P 500 hitting another record high to close out April, U.S. equity futures point to a mixed market open later on Friday morning.

1. U.S. President Donald Trump faces a deadline on Friday to end the Iran war or make the case to Congress for extending it, but the date is most likely to pass without altering the course of a conflict that has lapsed into a standoff over shipping routes. Ending the war appears highly unlikely. (Reuters)

In a statement on Thursday, Iran’s supreme leader defiantly vowed to protect the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Iran also said that if Washington renewed attacks, it would respond with “long and painful strikes” on U.S. positions, complicating Washington’s hopes for an international coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz.

You know our thinking when it comes to duration and follow-through, now to see if a ceasefire extension or a resumption of attacks comes next.

2. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq locked in their best month since 2020 with a record closing high on Thursday despite struggles from three of the biggest U.S. firms. (Barron’s)

The Pro Portfolio enjoyed that strong month in the market, rising 13.7% compared to the S&P 500’s April gain of 10.4%. We’ll have more to say on that with the Weekly Roundup later on Friday, but a note of caution as we start May trading: Relative Strength Index levels for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are back over 70, the Fear & Greed Index is flashing Greed, and the Cboe Volatility Index closed last night at its lowest level since February 2.

3. At 10 a.m. ET, ISM will publish its April Manufacturing PMI report, and while the manufacturing economy only accounts for 10% to 15% of overall GDP, we and many others will be focused on the print for the Prices sub-index. Market expectations see it coming in at 80, up from March and the highest level since May 2022. Coming off the Fed’s latest policy meeting, we’re not as focused on the impact on monetary policy as we are on input cost pressures and subsequent pricing actions.

4. Apple reported that revenue from iPhones rose 21.7% to nearly $57 billion in the second quarter compared with the prior year as customers, excited by the iPhone 17 lineup, continued to upgrade their devices at a brisk pace. That powered Apple to quarterly sales of $111.2 billion, results that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The results might have been better if not for the constrained supply of advanced chips that power Apple’s devices, said Apple Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh. And Apple said results will continue to be strong, projecting that revenue will leap between 14% and 17% during the current quarter, far higher than analysts’ estimate of 10%. (WSJ)

Certainly, a stronger outlook than many were looking for despite the concern over rising memory costs and supply chain issues. On the earnings call, Apple’s Tim Cook warned that memory costs will be “significantly higher” for the company beyond the June quarter and that Apple is looking at a range of options to offset the impact to its business.

What impressed us more with Apple’s March quarter was the uptick in operating margins to more than 32%, a full point higher compared to the year-ago quarter. While the initial thought may jump to the March quarter mix favoring the high-margin Services business, which it did, Apple’s product margins jumped nicely year over year.

We’ll review our current $305 target for (AAPL) shares, but we may hold off on making any material adjustments until the company’s 2026 WWDC keynote, which is expected to unveil its revamped, AI-enabled Siri. That event is slated for June 8.

5. The Defense Department has completed agreements with six technology companies, including many of the industry’s biggest, to use their artificial-intelligence capabilities in classified settings, boosting the Pentagon’s efforts to gain access to cutting-edge AI tools. The department said Friday it is now capable of using in classified settings the technology and models from the ChatGPT maker, OpenAI; Alphabet’s; Elon Musk’s SpaceX; Microsoft; Nvidia; and a startup, Reflection AI. SpaceX owns Musk’s AI company, xAI. (WSJ)

While some will point to concerns over mass surveillance and other illegal activities, the announcement is another validation point for rising AI adoption and usage. This builds on the significant revenue gains posted this week by Google (GOOGL) ’s Google Cloud, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure and Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS. In that order, their respective year-over-year Q1 2026 revenue gains were 40%, 63% and 28%. In reviewing those figures, let’s remember the scale of AWS compared to the others.

Spending figures from those three and Meta (META) suggest there is far more road to go in AI adoption and usage, with stepped-up expectations for this year to $800 billion to $900 billion. After this week’s earnings call from those four hyperscalers, we are seeing 2027 forecasts for AI and data center spending in excess of $1 trillion. We see that driving demand for chips, networking equipment and exacerbating the power conversation. All good things for our holdings.

6. Estee Lauder on Friday forecast strong annual organic sales growth after beating quarterly ‌estimates as CEO Stephane de La Faverie’s turnaround plan gains traction, sending its shares up 12% in premarket trading… (Reuters)

The potential fly in that forecast ointment is Estee Lauder’s assumption that there was no deterioration in the geopolitical landscape or related impacts, including tariffs and consumer sentiment, as well as ⁠business disruptions in the Middle East beyond May 2026. That leaves some room for potential downside disappointment.

The company also upped its job cuts target to 9,000 to 10,000 from the previously estimated range of 5,800 to 7,000. That’s a pretty large cleaver on a workforce of about 57,000, but the move reflects the decision to leverage “faster growth channels” like Amazon and TikTok.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), ISM Manufacturing PMI (April), Construction Spending (March)

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AutoNation (AN) , Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) , Chevron (CVX) , Colgate Palmolive (CL) , Dominion Energy (D) , Estee Lauder (EL) , Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Lazard (LAZ) .