Alpha Teknova, Inc. (NASDAQ:TKNO) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenues beat expectations coming in atUS$11m, ahead of estimates by 9.5%. Statutory losses were somewhat smaller thanthe analysts expected, coming in at US$0.08 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Alpha Teknova’s six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$43.3m in 2026. This would be an okay 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.35 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$43.0m and losses of US$0.35 per share in 2026.
View our latest analysis for Alpha Teknova
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$9.00, suggesting that the business – losses and all – is executing in line with estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Alpha Teknova, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It’s clear from the latest estimates that Alpha Teknova’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it’s clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Alpha Teknova is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Alpha Teknova going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Alpha Teknova is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about…
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
