Several things have to happen to set the stage for a summer stock market correction, Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen warned.
The analysis: To get a more pronounced sell-off in stocks, Allen said, past experience has shown it would require at least one of the following factors:
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An oil shock that is sustained (or at least priced as such).
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Data that is clearly in contractionary territory.
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Aggressive central bank tightening to deal with the resulting inflation.
“So far, it’s tough to argue we have any of these,” Allen noted. “The closest is the point on the ‘sustained’ oil shock, as markets are increasingly pricing in a longer period of elevated oil prices. But even there, the six-month Brent future is still only just above $90 a barrel, and declining energy intensity means that a given level for oil prices doesn’t create the economic shock it used to. So unless we see a clear change in these fundamentals, then the resiliency of risk assets is not particularly remarkable, but is in keeping with the historical record of recent decades.”
Markets, at a glance: The stock market has faced noticeable downward pressure over the past two weeks as the persistent conflict in Iran has triggered widespread angst over inflation.
Chief among investor concerns is the spike in energy costs, with Brent crude oil surging toward $110 a barrel amid ongoing supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. That will keep gas prices elevated during the Memorial Day travel weekend and put a crimp on consumer spending plans.
Read more: What an extended war with Iran could mean for gas prices
This commodity rally has actively bled into fixed-income markets, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield (^TNX) to a fresh 12-month high of 4.61% as bonds sell off onspilled over into fixed-income markets, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield (^TNX) to a fresh 12-month high of 4.61% as bonds sell off amid interest rate hike fears.
Soaring yields have dampened Wall Street’s enthusiasm because higher borrowing costs compress corporate profit margins and make safer debt instruments look highly attractive compared to equities.
Consequently, the combination of sticky consumer price data and macro uncertainty has prompted intense profit-taking in the high-flying semiconductor and megacap tech sectors. Case in point: shares of super-hot memory chip stocks Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) are each down 14% over the past five sessions. Shares of AI chip player Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are off by 9% during this same stretch.
The bottom line: Deutsche Bank’s Allen makes some important points here, but it’s worth keeping something in mind: The markets will begin to price in the factors he mentions in advance of them actually happening.
