The stock market goes into the last week of May from yet another position of power, with the S&P 500 surfing the 7,500 mark after a busy earnings season.
While not a straight shot up and to the right, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) rose yet again for the week, joined by the Dow (^DJI), which set new records and has 51,000 in its sights for the first time.
With earnings season done, the stock market moves into digestion and distraction territory as investors integrate the whole of corporate data with extracurricular corporate news, economic releases, the bond market’s not-so-subtle signals, and whatever distractions, surprises, and unknown unknowns emerge.
As we all know, there’s always something, and headlines will rush in to fill a calendar void.
Things we’ve circled on the calendar
This earnings season is nearly done and dusted, though a few key companies are set to report quarterly results this coming week.
It’s a calm week until Wednesday, when the hot semiconductor trade will hear from Marvell Technology (MRVL), which is up 120% so far this year. Salesforce (CRM), which has failed to harness the year’s AI boom, also reports on Wednesday.
Thursday brings us Costco Wholesale (COST), Dell Technologies (DELL), and a few retailers like Dollar Tree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY), and The Gap (GAP) for a consumer snapshot.
The economic calendar will be calm in the shortened week with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading on Tuesday, following the University of Michigan’s dismal sentiment release on Friday. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, will come out on Thursday, capping the week’s top-tier economic data agenda.
Good earnings numbers, even if dour vibes
The quarter’s earnings season is essentially complete. Even before Nvidia and the retailers opened their books, earnings growth was booming, tracking at 26% year over year, the highest since 2021, according to Savita Subramanian’s team at Bank of America.
As we all heard last week from the retail CEOs, many executives spoke in their earnings calls with a funereal, somber tone, perhaps in deference to those on the wrong side of the K-shaped economy.
But don’t let it fool you.
“Despite a slightly more cautious tone on earnings calls, guidance was above average,” Subramanian wrote, pointing to outlook revisions that were much above historical trends.
While there’s plenty of chatter questioning the stock market’s valuation, we’d remind anyone who will listen that this is why: It’s because a lot of money is expected to come in, bolstered by the credibility that stems from having largely delivered on similar promises in the recent past.
