ASTS, RKLB, LUNR, RDW, RKTO Extend Slide Premarket After Blue Origin Blowup — Analyst Pushes AST Coverage Timeline To 2028

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and several space-sector peers fell in premarket trading on Monday after a Blue Origin rocket explosion intensified concerns about satellite deployment schedules, while an analyst pushed expectations for ASTS’ coverage network out to 2028.

In premarket trading, ASTS fell 5%, RKLB and LUNR declined 3%, RDW and RKTO dropped 4%.

Can ASTS Hit Coverage Goals?

The latest caution came from satellite communications analyst Tim Farrar, who said that AST SpaceMobile’s deployment pace may be slower than investors anticipate.

“3-5 launches on F9 this year is the best you can hope for,” Farrar said on X. He added that even the upper end of that range would likely require AST to secure additional Falcon 9 launch opportunities beyond its current plans. More significantly, Farrar said continuous commercial service is unlikely before 2028 and argued that intermittent coverage would not generate “meaningful revenue” in 2027.

Investors have closely followed the company’s satellite deployment schedule since the pace of launches determines how quickly the network can provide continuous cellular broadband coverage directly to standard smartphones and begin generating commercial revenue.

Blue Origin’s Problems Mount

Farrar’s warning comes days after Blue Origin confirmed an “anomaly” during a hotfire test of its New Glenn rocket at Cape Canaveral ahead of the vehicle’s anticipated fourth mission. The rocket was expected to launch Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellites before an explosion occurred during testing. Blue Origin said all personnel were safe and that an investigation is underway. The incident marks the second major New Glenn setback in less than two months.

In May, New Glenn’s third mission experienced an upper-stage anomaly, preventing AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite from reaching its intended orbit. While AST said the mission was insured, the loss heightened investor sensitivity around launch execution risks.

Why AST Investors Are Nervous

AST SpaceMobile signed a multi-launch agreement with Blue Origin in late 2024 to deploy future Block 2 BlueBird satellites aboard New Glenn. The rocket’s large payload fairing is particularly well-suited for AST’s next-gen satellites and could carry multiple BlueBird spacecraft on a single mission.

Although AST has repeatedly stressed that it is not dependent on a single launch provider and continues to work with SpaceX, investors remain focused on launch availability. The company needs 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit to provide continuous commercial coverage across key U.S. markets.

Earlier this month, AST said BlueBird satellites 8, 9 and 10 had arrived at Cape Canaveral ahead of a Falcon 9 launch expected in mid-June. CEO Abel Avellan recently said the company remains “on target” to deploy 45 satellites this year and expects launches at approximately monthly intervals. AST President Scott Wisniewski has similarly said that the company expects “a handful” of launches from both Blue Origin and SpaceX and believes sufficient launch capacity exists to support its roadmap.

However, several analysts have become more cautious. Deutsche Bank downgraded ASTS to ‘Hold,’ citing concerns that launch delays could affect the company’s 2026 deployment targets. Roth Capital maintained its ‘Buy’ rating, but said that the latest Blue Origin incident could push commercial constellation deployment from late 2026 into early 2027.

Why RKLB, LUNR, RDW, RKTO Were Dragged Lower

While AST faces the most direct exposure, the sell-off has spread across the broader space sector, as Blue Origin plays an important role in multiple areas of the emerging space economy. RKLB has no direct operational dependence on New Glenn, but investors view the explosion as another reminder of the technical and execution risks associated with launch systems. The company’s Neutron rocket is under development and competes in the same medium-to-heavy-lift market as New Glenn.

Meanwhile, LUNR was caught up in concerns around NASA’s lunar ambitions. Blue Origin recently secured lunar-related work and remains a major participant in Artemis and future moon infrastructure programs. NASA has already said it is assessing the potential impacts of the incident, creating uncertainty about broader lunar development timelines.

Redwire primarily supplies space infrastructure, avionics and aerospace hardware rather than launch services. However, the stock was swept up in broader sector weakness. On the other hand, RKTO’s decline appeared largely driven by profit-taking. The company recently rebranded from biotech firm Hoth Therapeutics and surged more than 100% over two sessions after unveiling its AI, semiconductor and space tech strategy and joining AMD’s AI Developer Program.

SpaceX IPO Rally Reverses

The sell-off comes after a strong rally across space stocks last week, which accelerated following SpaceX’s filing for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history. SpaceX estimated its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, helping fuel enthusiasm across publicly traded space companies.

AST SpaceMobile attracted particular attention after SpaceX explicitly identified the company as a competitor in direct-to-device communications. Rocket Lab continued benefiting from expanding defense and satellite infrastructure contracts, while Redwire pointed to a record backlog and major defense wins. Intuitive Machines recently reported a record $1.1 billion backlog tied to lunar infrastructure and national-security programs.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Space Stocks?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘extremely bullish’ for ASTS, LUNR, and RDW, with message volume hitting ‘extremely high’ levels for LUNR and RDW and staying ‘high’ for ASTS and RKTO. Meanwhile, RKLB stood apart, with retail sentiment rated ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

Over the past year, RKLB has surged 425%, ASTS has gained 381%, and LUNR has climbed 267%, while RDW and RKTO are up 70% and 68%, respectively.