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US stocks were mixed on Monday as investors eyed US-Iran peace talks and Nvidia’s (NVDA) new laptop chip as markets faltered after reaching record highs in May.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell below the flat line, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) drifted 0.1% higher as announcements from the Computex Taipei conference boosted tech stocks, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
Markets entered June weighing conflicting signals on an interim Middle East peace deal awaiting President Trump’s approval. On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social that “it will all work out well,” even after the US and Iran traded fire over the weekend.
A report Monday morning from Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim that Iran suspended talks with the US over Israel’s actions in Lebanon and Gaza added to uncertainty around the deal and helped push oil prices higher.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude rose 8% to $94 a barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) crude gained 7% to $97. Despite the rebound, WTI logged its biggest monthly decline since April 2025, falling nearly 17% in May.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, one of the week’s most important economic releases. The employment data could provide fresh clues about labor market strength and help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path in the months ahead.
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US manufacturing activity expands at fastest pace in four years
US manufacturing activity expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years, according to data released by the Institute of Supply Management on Monday.
The ISM’s gauge of manufacturing activity rose to 54, against economists’ predictions of 53 and April’s reading of 52.7. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction.
The reading of 54 marks the highest point for the index since May 2022.
The manufacturing gauge has now expanded for five months in a row, bolstered by gains in both production and new orders. Much of that investment has been driven by the boom in demand for AI and the infrastructure required to make the technological expansion possible.
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Barry Diller’s People Inc. offers to buy out MGM, citing potential value unlock
MGM (MGM) stock jumped by about 14% on Monday after billionaire Barry Diller’s People Inc. submitted an offer to buy out the rest of the company for $18 billion, including debt.
People Inc. already owns a 26.1% stake in MGM and submitted a letter to the company to acquire the remaining outstanding shares of the resort and casino company for $48.30 per share in cash, representing a 24% premium to the average price of MGM’s stock over the past 30 days.
“We continue to believe the market materially undervalues the power and durability of MGM’s assets,” said Diller, People Inc.’s chairman. “We believe MGM’s management team is superb, and that there is a compelling opportunity to support MGM’s next phase of growth and help unlock its full value.”
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Stocks fall at the open on report that Iran suspended peace talks
Stocks opened lower on Monday, beginning the month of June in retreat from May’s record highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) wavered as investors assessed developments in the two major themes in markets right now: the US-Iran war and the artificial intelligence trade.
Stocks fell and oil prices surged Monday morning after a report from Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency stated that Iran halted talks with the US in protest of Israel’s fighting in Lebanon. The report said that Iran demanded that there be no talks until Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza cease.
Meanwhile, announcements from the Computex Taipei conference boosted tech stocks, offsetting weakness elsewhere. Nvidia’s new AI laptop chip for Windows computers lifted Microsoft (MSFT) shares but hurt Intel’s stock (INTC).
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Gold slips as US-Iran clash revives inflation
Gold (GC=F) futures slipped over 1% to $4,529 per ounce on Monday morning after the US and Iran clashed over the weekend, pushing oil prices higher and sending mixed signals about the extended ceasefire deal the two sides are negotiating toward.
The fighting in the Middle East revived inflation concerns and bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, with traders pricing in a roughly 40% chance that the Fed will increase rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
“The optimism surrounding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz faded over the weekend,” ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista said to Reuters. “As a result, energy prices rebounded, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.”
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Oil prices rise as conflict resumes between US and Iran, no deal emerges
Oil prices rose on Monday as investors digested overnight headlines about military action between the US and Iran, even as President Trump continued to telegraph that a deal is close to being signed.
Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, rose 2.8% to trade above $93.50 per barrel, while those on US benchmark WTI crude (CL=F) gained a slightly stronger 3% to trade at $90 per barrel.
News that the US military had struck radar and drone sites in Iran after the Iranian regime shot down a US drone sent prices surging back upward after spending a week consistently falling on hopes of a deal between Washington and Tehran.
Fighting also reportedly picked back up in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed proxy force Hezbollah, calling into question the status of ceasefire negotiations, within which Iran has said Israel’s campaign in Lebanon must be included.
Several headlines last week reporting that US and Iranian negotiators had agreed to terms for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent prices falling. That move downward paused over the weekend after reporting that Trump demanded stronger concessions from Iran instead of approving the deal on the table.
Trump said early Monday morning that Iranian leadership “wants to make a deal,” and that it will be a “good one for the U.S.A., and those that are with us,” leaving the market once more in limbo over the status of a deal — and therefore, the global oil market.
The US has helped roughly 70 ships exit the Strait of Hormuz over the past three weeks, The New York Times reported on Sunday, though the count remains far below the roughly 120 crossings per day before the war.
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Nvidia debuts new laptop chip, sending Microsoft shares higher and Intel stock lower
Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose 2% in premarket trading on Monday after CEO Jensen Huang gave a keynote address at the annual Computex chip summit in Taiwan.
At the conference, Nvidia unveiled that it is working on a new superchip called RTX Spark that will power Windows laptops. Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley reports that the RTX Spark is expected to land this fall and pack upward of 128GB of memory, a massive amount for any laptop.
Shares of the laptop makers Nvidia is partnering with rose in premarket trading. Microsoft (MSFT) and HP (HPQ) gained more than 3%, while Dell (DELL) added more than 1% in early trading.
The news also sent shares of laptop CPU giants Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) down 6% and 4%, respectively.
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Bond trader bets on Fed hike poised for gut check from jobs data
Bloomberg reports:
Bond traders are looking to a key jobs report this week to confirm their wagers that the US economy is strong enough to push the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by next year.
Beyond developments in the Middle East, a big focus will be Friday’s release of monthly employment figures, which are projected to show the labor market remained resilient in May. Combined with elevated oil prices and reaccelerating inflation, that may bolster expectations that officials will remove the easing bias in their statement in June, in the Fed’s first meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Traders see a hike by mid-2027, if not sooner, underscoring how the spike in energy prices as a result of the Iran war has upended expectations that Warsh would deliver cuts soon after taking over. By Bloomberg Economics’ calculation, the jump in bond yields since the conflict began has already tightened financial conditions by the equivalent of about three-quarters of a percentage point of Fed rate increases.
“Yields have risen, and it’s adding restrictiveness to the US economy and doing the work of the Fed,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas. As rates climb in maturities from two to 10 years, he said, “you’re really creating some headwinds that will eventually come through.”
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Asian markets rise as AI boom drives growth across region
Reuters report:
Asian share markets firmed on Monday as the boom in all things AI continued to drive demand, offsetting a lack of progress in Gulf peace talks that challenged optimism on a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifted oil prices.
Asian share markets remain underpinned by demand for semiconductors and AI-related gear, with Japan’s Nikkei (^N225) up a further 0.5%, having risen almost 5% last week to all-time highs.
South Korea’s Kospi (^KS11) rose 1.3%, after surging 8% last week, while Taiwan’s TWSE (^TWII) climbed almost 6% last week. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.2%.
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang kicks off the Computex trade show in Taiwan on Monday with a speech about AI in which he is expected to expound on his company’s latest product efforts as well as the island’s central role in the industry.
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Oil rises following US and Iran back and forth with war plans still
Bloomberg reports:
Oil rose from a six-week low amid uncertainty over the outlook for a peace deal to end the war in Iran.
Brent (BZ=F) advanced toward $93 a barrel after closing at its lowest since mid-April on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $89. The US and Iran traded messages over the weekend seeking changes to a draft agreement that would extend a ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz, but it was unclear if the sides were making much progress.
The standoff follows a bout of optimism that some form of peace agreement would be reached — and that energy flows would resume through the Strait of Hormuz — that had caused the first monthly drop in crude prices this year. Brent is still up more than a quarter since the war started at the end of February, as the near-total closure of the vital waterway causes unprecedented turmoil in oil markets.
President Donald Trump hasn’t spoken on the subject of Iran since a White House Situation Room meeting Friday, in which he said he expected to announce an agreement to prolong the current truce with Iran by 60 days. In a social media post earlier that day he reiterated his demands, including that Iran suspend its nuclear program and fully restore the strait to its earlier status as a free, international waterway.
