Statistically, Wall Street has enjoyed having President Donald Trump in the White House. During his first term, the preeminent Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and tech-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) soared 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively.
Even with two separate swoons since the start of Trump’s second term (the tariff tantrum and Iran war pullback), we’re witnessing an encore performance from equities. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have rallied 17%, 26%, and 37%, respectively, in Trump’s second term (through the end of May 2026).
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Catalysts for this historic rally include the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), the advent and proliferation of quantum computing, record S&P 500 share buybacks in 2025, and better-than-expected corporate earnings.
But things may not be as perfect as Wall Street’s major stock indexes make them appear. Downside catalysts have been mounting for months — and the newest one to enter the picture may be the spark that ignites a stock market crash under President Trump.
Several threats loom large for Wall Street
Arguably, the most front-and-center concern for the stock market is the (as of this writing) ongoing Iran war and the inflationary impact this event is having on the U.S. economy.
Shortly after Trump gave the U.S. military the OK to attack Iran on Feb. 28, the latter closed the Strait of Hormuz to nearly all commercial vessels. This action effectively halted the flow of 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids per day (about 20% of worldwide demand), sending fuel prices soaring.
The problem with energy price shocks is that there are several stages. Businesses often endure the adverse effects of higher energy prices months later, leading to a second wave of inflation in the U.S. economy. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting tool, trailing 12-month inflation is projected to jump to 4.18% in May, up from a reported 2.4% in February.
This inflationary surge can’t be swept under the rug and may force the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise interest rates — a potentially devastating outcome for a historically pricey stock market that’s been propped up by jaw-dropping spending tied to the AI data center build-out.
