The Iran conflict is 100 days old and the stock market still doesn’t care

Good morning, investors. Stocks are coming off a losing day at the tail-end of a red-hot two-month winning streak.

AI explains everything in markets today, good and bad, a fact that in turn explains why Iran has not been the geopolitical headwind the bears feared.

🚨BREAKING: Late Sunday, Iran fired a wave of missiles at Israel after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut. The attack marked the first time Iran has targeted Israel since its ceasefire with the US began in April. This is a developing story.

The most violent geopolitical shock in a generation has hit the 100-day mark and Wall Street is still barely paying attention.

Investors who looked past the Iran conflict have won out over the bears who dumped stocks at the first sign of trouble at the end of February. The S&P 500 has reversed all its war-related losses in its second V-shaped recovery in 12 months, mirroring the pattern of last year’s Liberation Day.

The index closed at 6,879 on February 27, the day before the US and Israeli forces struck Iran.

All told, stocks are up more than 7% since before the Iran conflict started.

Geopolitics aside, the bulls have won the first 100 days with resounding force.

What’s unusual about this rally is that the variables that spooked markets most still haven’t gone away.

Crude remains elevated well above pre-war levels and inflation has ticked higher. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely shuttered, putting the rest of the world in one of the largest energy supply disruptions on record.

And yet asset prices have gone up anyway.

On one hand, muscle memory from President Trump’s Liberation Day could still be lingering.

Investors who exited the market last April on account of tariffs ended up missing one of the sharpest rebounds in history, which likely left many of them resolved not to make the same mistake twice.

Another variable is that the so-called “war premium” in the stock market evaporated as quickly as it arrived.

And while that risk is still present in crude prices, Wall Street seems to believe that the war — no matter the number of missiles flying — is secondary to whatever is happening with the AI trade.

Most retirement accounts limit what you’re allowed to invest in, but smart investors like Peter Thiel and Warren Buffet have used self-directed IRAs to accumulate millions of dollars in tax-free retirement accounts. 

BitcoinIRA makes it easy to boost retirement savings by investing in crypto through a tax-advantaged IRA.

Since 2016, they’ve been a leader in the space, offering the best in service and security including military-grade cold storage and up to $250M² in custody insurance. 

Save up to 37% on capital gains taxes and get expert help from IRA specialists. Trusted by 200K+ Americans, it’s designed to make crypto retirement investing simple and secure, and it only takes a few minutes to sign up.

Plus, Opening Bell Daily readers can win up to $4,000 of rewards¹.

📉 Wall Street wiped a trillion dollars off the chip sector Friday. It marked the worst Nasdaq session since April 2025, with Broadcom’s softer-than-expected earnings outlook dragging Nvidia 6.2%, Micron 6.3% and Marvell 8% lower. (CNBC)

📊 The jobs report shattered forecasts with 172,000 jobs added in May. Unemployment held at 4.3% for a third straight month, and prior revisions added 93,000 jobs to March and April. (Yahoo Finance)

🚀 Nvidia and SK will announce a new cooperation deal in Seoul on Monday morning. CEO Jensen Huang told reporters the global memory shortage is “going to persist for several years” as AI demand outruns supply across wafers, packaging and silicon photonics. (Reuters)

🗓 June 8, 2009: Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg issued an emergency stay temporarily blocking the sale of Chrysler to a Fiat-led consortium. The stay was lifted the next day and the bailout closed days later in one of the largest US bankruptcy restructurings ever.

📩 Want to get in front of 207,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

Sponsor disclaimers: Some taxes may apply. We recommend you consult your tax, legal or investment advisor.

2. Security, storage, wallet providers, and insurance may vary based on asset chosen and custody solution available.