The market for initial public offerings (IPOs) has struggled to see the same enthusiasm it had in 2021, when 397 offerings raised $142.4 billion in proceeds. While 2026 has gotten off to a slow start — 71 IPOs have raised $35.7 billion — a string of highly anticipated offerings is signaling renewed excitement for IPOs.
First up is the SpaceX IPO, with Elon Musk‘s space and exploration company set to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday, June 12, under the ticker symbol SPCX.
The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the SpaceX IPO, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what this means for the stock market, the economy and your money. Scroll for the updates.
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What Renaissance Capital’s Avery Marquez is expecting from the SpaceX IPO
Few IPOs arrive with the level of anticipation surrounding SpaceX. The company’s scale, brand power, retail investor interest and unusual deal structure have already made it one of the most talked-about offerings in recent memory. But the IPO also comes with significant complexity, from expected volatility and staged lockup releases to the possibility of fast-tracked index inclusion.
For perspective on what this could mean for investors and the broader IPO market, I spoke with Avery Marquez, director of Investment Strategies at Renaissance Capital, a provider of pre-IPO research and IPO-focused ETFs.
Your thoughts on the prospects for the IPO?
It’s hard to contest the general consensus that this will be a hot deal. Forgoing the typical range for a set price is a solid indicator that the deal is already covered, or at least that the company and underwriters are confident in the massive demand this is expected to generate.
Early trading will likely be very volatile, especially with such a large portion expected to go to retail. I’ve seen reports still indicating up to 30%. I believe the extensive lockup release schedule and “forced buying” by indexes fast-tracking inclusion will also lend to some interesting trading dynamics in the first few weeks and months.
How does this compare to other large IPOs?
I’m partial to say that there is no real comparison. You can look at something like Saudi Aramco, which is the closest example in size, but the dynamics were quite different, given the government involvement and the market’s relative opacity (though worth noting that the Tadawul is more transparent now than back in 2019).
In the U.S., Facebook — now Meta Platforms (META) — may be worth comparing, given the size, governance structure and disruptive tech pitch. But the months of hype leading up to the IPO, the intricacies of SpaceX’s business, the sheer number of moving parts make this a wholly unusual deal.
What about the lock-up? Implications?
SpaceX’s lockup is one of the most complex I’ve ever seen. Given the float dynamics, it could be framed as a bid to control that potential flow, or maybe it’s just a way to give early investors liquidity before the standard 180 days. I do wonder how much overlap there will be between the release schedule and the schedule of indices that will now be fast-tracking inclusion.
How important is this IPO? What might it mean for the expected IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic?
It’s difficult to point to this as a bellwether for broader IPO activity, given how unusual the deal is. It will be a test of demand at scale, however, which will be particularly important for OpenAI and Anthropic, given how much capital they are expected to raise at IPO. Overall, it’s going to be a historic test for the IPO market and will show us how much hype or FOMO is being baked into these high-profile names right now.
– Tom Taulli
Just how dominant is SpaceX as a company?
To underscore SpaceX’s dominance, consider that it had 165 launches in 2025, vastly more than any other rocket launcher, and launched 85% of global spacecraft into orbit. Its small satellite constellation, Starlink, is by far the leader in
internet speed and customers.
Unlike many space companies of years past, SpaceX is vertically integrated. It makes its own satellites, antennas, rockets, engines and all sorts of other equipment. It will build its own AI satellites, and plans to even start making its own computer chips through a partnership with Intel (INTC). Controlling all aspects of the business gives it an ongoing edge.
Perhaps an underappreciated competitive threat to SpaceX’s Starlink is Amazon’s (AMZN) upcoming Leo broadband service. I’ve tracked Amazon’s planned mega-constellation over the years, and my impression is that they are very serious about winning consumers, businesses and governments.
Amazon has deep pockets and is touting how its Leo broadband service will integrate with its AWS cloud computing business. It could even offer discounted broadband for Amazon Prime subscribers.
Of course, Amazon must rely on outside rocket companies, including SpaceX, to get thousands of its satellites into orbit.
Blue Origin, which is owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, could help if it starts launching a lot more in the coming years.
But Blue Origin only had two launches last year, failed to put AST SpaceMobile’s satellite into orbit in April and had a massive launchpad disaster last month.
– John Miley
SpaceX will not be fast-tracked into the S&P 500
Several exchange operators have recently changed their rules to fast-track inclusion for mega-cap IPOs, including SpaceX.
Nasdaq (NDAQ), for instance, unveiled new “fast entry” rules in early May that allows it the ability to accelerate the time frame in which large companies are added to its Nasdaq-100 Index. Previous rules required that a company wait up to a year before being included in the index, but its new requirements lower the eligibility for inclusion to just 15 days.
“That’s important for a number of reasons,” explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature on the Nasdaq’s new fast entry rules. “For one thing, the delay stops hedge funds from front-running ETF investors. Under the new rules, hedge funds could buy the stock on the day of the IPO, then flip it to passive investors just 15 days later. That’s basically a wealth transfer from long-term index investors to fast-money pros.”
Additionally, it forces institutional investors to buy SpaceX shares once the company is included in the indices their index funds track.
But one index that SpaceX will not be allowed fast entry to is the S&P 500. “Based on S&P DJI’s Index Committee review of the markets and after consideration of responses received from a wide range of market participants, no changes will be made to the eligibility criteria including financial viability screens, seasoning period, or minimum IWF, for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, or S&P SmallCap 600 as a result of the S&P Dow Jones Indices consultation on the treatment of MegaCap companies,” wrote S&P Dow Jones Indices in a June 4 release. “Accordingly, there will be no changes to existing methodology for this index family.”
Specifically, S&P Dow Jones Indices chose to keep several rules in place, including one that requires a company to trade on a major exchange for 12 months before being considered for inclusion in an index.
So, while SpaceX shares will likely make their way into several index funds within the next several weeks, they will not be in S&P 500 ETFs for at least the next year.
– Karee Venema
Related content: Invested in Index Funds? Here’s What You Need to Know About Mega-Cap IPOs
The SpaceX IPO is increasing excitement around the space industry and consolidation could be coming
Similar to the AI industry, there’s immense excitement about space, supercharged by SpaceX’s IPO. That’s led to venture capitalists betting big on a growing number of start-ups.
Generally speaking, there are too many companies, even as the overall global market is poised to grow. Look for a wave of consolidation as things shake out over the next three to five years.
SpaceX’s dominance could be a driving force in this trend as it aggressively seeks to control both traditional and new markets. When SpaceX decides to get involved in a particular segment of space, its competitors get nervous.
– John Miley
On June 3, SpaceX updated its S-1 filing to show that it priced its offering at $135 per share. Based on the roughly 555.6 million Class A shares it is selling, SpaceX will raise $75 billion, easily making it the biggest U.S. IPO ever. Chinese tech conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) currently holds that title, having raised $4.6 billion in its March 2021 offering.
Most companies offer a price range for their offering in the week or so leading up to their IPO and then set a final price the night before their stock begins trading on public markets. And SpaceX could change its price later today, but it’s widely expected that the $ 135-per-share price set by CEO Elon Musk last week will be the final offer.
There are likely several reasons for this, including Musk’s likely desire to take SpaceX public on his terms.
Additionally, there’s massive demand for SpaceX shares. According to some estimates, the IPO is 3.3 times oversubscribed, meaning demand for SPCX stock has more than tripled the number of shares available for purchase. This suggests that shares could see a big first-day pop given the supply-demand imbalance.
– Karee Venema
How to buy the SpaceX IPO
Allocations of IPOs — especially hot ones — typically go to institutions and wealthy investors. This is a way for investment banks and brokerages to reward their best clients. This usually means that allocations for retail investors are small, say 5% to 10% of the number of shares issued.
But with the upcoming SpaceX IPO, the script will be different. The company has set the allocation up to 30%, or about $23 billion in market value.
Here are the brokerages that have been assigned to distribute the shares:
Each firm has its own requirements. Yet there is a general process for retail investors to buy SpaceX shares.
- Investor questionnaire: You will need to fill out a form that gauges whether you meet the firm’s eligibility criteria. This might include an account minimum, investor experience and risk tolerance.
- Offer: The firm will provide access to SpaceX’s prospectus, which is the disclosure document for the IPO. You will then submit an indication of interest or conditional offer — that is, the number of shares you want to buy. This is for a price range. When the IPO is priced, which typically happens the night before the public offering, you will confirm the indication of interest.
- Allocation: On the day of the IPO, the firm will notify you if you received shares.
Keep in mind that you are not guaranteed to receive shares. If there is substantial demand for the offering, there may not be enough for the retail investors who submitted their indications of interest. Furthermore, each firm will have its own procedures for allocations. For example, if an investor “flipped” a prior IPO, which is when they sold shares soon after the offering, they may not get an allocation.
Then again, some firms have fairly straightforward approaches. In the case of Robinhood, it’s solely based on a random allocation.
– Tom Taulli
Tom Taulli is the CEO and cofounder of CorvEquity, a platform that helps startups track cap tables and manage stock option plans. He is also an author and financial writer whose books include The Personal Finance Guide for Tech Professionals: Building, Protecting, and Transferring Your Wealth and High-Profit IPO Strategies: Finding Breakout IPOs for Investors and Traders. Tom has written extensively about finance, investing, technology and startups.
Space is hard
One thing I’ve heard over and over again from space analysts, investors and executives: “Space is hard.”
The industry mantra may seem like a tired cliché or even an excuse for mishaps and bad business decisions, but it’s true. The incredibly capital-intensive industry requires extraordinary feats of engineering and technology. Things can go wrong suddenly, as seen in the recent explosion during a Blue Origin engine test. Funding could dry up as timelines get extended and revenue is slow to appear.
So, when looking at the space sector, keep in mind that delays are common and outright failures happen. Or, to echo another industry cliché, it’s literally rocket science.
– John Miley
John Miley is a Senior Associate Editor at The Kiplinger Letter. He mainly covers technology, telecom and education, but will jump on other important business topics as needed. In his role, he provides timely forecasts about emerging technologies, business trends and government regulations. He also edits stories for the weekly publication and has written and edited email newsletters.
What is SpaceX?
Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002, intending to lower costs for space launches and eventually build a livable colony on Mars. The company had its first successful space launch in 2008 and has since had more than 650 total launches. It also wants to build data centers in space.
“A key to its success has been a relentless focus on innovation,” writes Kiplinger contributor Tom Taulli in his feature on the hottest upcoming IPOs to watch for. “The company’s breakthroughs include reusable orbital rockets, which have greatly reduced the costs of space flights; vertical rocket landings; and onboard autonomous systems.”
In 2015, SpaceX moved to diversify its revenue stream with Starlink, a satellite internet project that today provides coverage to roughly 10 million customers across 160 countries and territories. It also has contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense to provide satellite service through its Starshield segment to government and military organizations, including with Ukraine during its war with Russia.
Geopolitical conflicts are increasing the demand for satellites, and the conflict in the Middle East shows “how space tech is crucial for missile warning and tracking, communications, surveillance, drone and vehicle connectivity, and more,” writes John Miley, senior associate editor at The Kiplinger Letter.
SpaceX also bought xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence (AI) company that owns X (formerly Twitter), in February 2026 in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $250 billion. In May, Musk announced that xAI is fully absorbed by SpaceX and will rebrand as SpaceXAI.
According to its S-1 filing, which became publicly available on May 20, SpaceX had revenue of $4.7 billion in the three months ended March 31. It also incurred a loss from operations of $1.9 billion and had adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $1.1 billion.
In 2025, the company’s revenue totaled $18.67 billion, while adjusted EBITDA arrived at $6.58 billion.
SpaceX is poised to benefit from surging growth in the global space economy, which is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2034, according to Novaspace, up from $626 billion in 2025. “The U.S., led by SpaceX launching 85% of spacecraft into orbit and its Starlink Internet service, reaps most of the business,” says Miley.
– Karee Venema
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics, IPOs and more.
