Key Takeaways
-
Crypto analyst Jesse Olson warned Bitcoin could fall to around $24,000 by 2026.
-
Some analysts argued that SpaceX’s soaring valuation could trigger a broader market correction.
-
Despite growing crash warnings, market commentator Marcus Today said investors should focus on probabilities rather than worst-case forecasts.
Bitcoin could plunge to around $24,000 by 2026 if a severe US stock market crash unfolds, according to crypto analyst Jesse Olson, as a growing number of market commentators warn that a major US market crash could be looming.
The comments also follow concerns from some analysts that the potential fallout from Elon Musk’s highly valued SpaceX IPO could trigger a broader market downturn.
Bitcoin Price Fall
On Sunday, popular crypto analyst Olson presented a thesis on X that Bitcoin’s price could fall dramatically “if the overall stock market crashes 50%+”
“Bitcoin reaching $23,979 was not on my 2026 bingo card,” Olson wrote.
The fall, if it occurred, would see a drop of roughly 60% below current levels near $63,000-$64,000.
The forecast reflects what traders often call a “black swan” scenario, a low-probability event with significant market consequences.
“I don’t believe Bitcoin goes to zero and I will be looking to buy the right dip whenever the reversal happens,” Olson said.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a strong correlation with technology stocks and other risk assets during periods of market stress.
SpaceX Could Trigger a Broader Selloff
Among the crash warnings is a recent argument from Alan Oscroft, a contributor to The Motley Fool, who suggested that SpaceX’s soaring valuation could eventually destabilize markets.
“The only thing I’m 100% convinced of concerning a stock market crash is that we’ll have one in the future,” Oscroft wrote.
He argued that a significant US market correction remains one of the biggest risks facing investors and suggested SpaceX’s valuation deserves close attention.
“I reckon a big US stock market sell-off is the biggest danger… and SpaceX might just be the trigger,” he wrote.
Oscroft highlighted comments from investor Michael Burry, who recently questioned the company’s valuation.
“[SpaceX is] fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light,” Burry said on June 16.
According to Oscroft, SpaceX’s rapid rise has been fueled partly by a limited supply of publicly tradable shares.
“The SpaceX price surge has mostly been driven by retail investors competing for the relatively small number of shares currently available. Only about 4.25% of the company is currently tradable on the open market,” he wrote.
