The S&P 500 fell sharply on Tuesday as a rout in semiconductor and memory-chip stocks intensified, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Wednesday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed down 1.44% at 7,365.46. However, the June 24 Polymarket contract implied a 71% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday, although betting activity remained volatile throughout the session so far.
Why That Number Matters
Investors remain focused on whether the recent selloff in artificial intelligence-linked stocks is a healthy correction or the beginning of a deeper unwind in one of the market’s strongest trades.
At the same time, markets continue to monitor inflation risks and energy prices ahead of Thursday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index.
The Bull Case
Futures pointed higher Wednesday as investors looked to bargain-hunt after two consecutive sessions of technology-driven losses.
Micron shares rose 4.5% in premarket trading, while Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) gained 3.4%, suggesting traders are positioning for a positive earnings catalyst.
Lower oil prices could also provide support for equities. Brent crude fell below $76 per barrel, its lowest level since February, as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of normalizing and negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued to progress.
Investors will also watch May building permits and new home sales data.
S&P 500 futures were modestly higher early Wednesday, rising 0.13%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,366.51, well below Monday’s close of 7,472.79, meaning the June 23 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $27,791 in traded volume before settling.
Image via Shutterstock
Image Via Shutterstock
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