Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (NASDAQ: SPCX) has made its historic market debut, and it was more fantastic than expected. Since the initial public offering (IPO) had many more requests than shares available, the underwriting banks likely exercised their overall 15% allotment, and SpaceX raised $86 billion.
While SpaceX stock jumped more than 50% in the days following its IPO, it hasn’t been able to hold on to all of its gains. As of this writing, SpaceX stock is up 17% from its IPO price. Interest in the stock remains high, for many reasons, including Elon Musk fandom and a desire to be part of the future of space travel.
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But for the retail investor, the end goal is putting your money to work for you. Over the long term, SpaceX may become the consequential company investors are hoping for. But even then, this may not be the best time to invest. Consider where the stock might be three months from now.
The historical precedent
IPOs can offer exciting incentives for investors. Getting in at the beginning gives you the greatest opportunities for gains — or does it?
With today’s mega-IPOs, that’s not necessarily the case. Many large tech companies land on the markets as expensive, highly valued companies, and that doesn’t create the conditions for strong gains, at least initially.
Consider some of the largest U.S. IPOs and how they did after three months:
|
Company |
Amount raised |
IPO Price |
3-Month Price |
Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Alibaba |
$12.8 billion |
$68 |
$111 |
63% |
|
Meta Platforms |
$16 billion |
$38 |
$19 |
(50)% |
|
General Motors |
$15.8 billion |
$33 |
$36 |
9% |
|
Rivian Automotive |
$11.9 billion |
$78 |
$59 |
(24)% |
|
Uber Technologies |
$8.1 billion |
$45 |
$40 |
(11)% |
Data source: Kiplinger, YCharts.
Some went up, and some went down, but the average is a 13% increase.
So far, SpaceX is unlike any other IPO in several ways and might prove different in three months. But markets move in specific ways, and no stock can outrun its fundamentals over time. If SpaceX stock mimics the average performance of these other top IPOs, then you would see a moderate gain in its stock price over the next three months, and $1,000 would be worth around $1,130.
However, in three months, part of the lockup period will have ended. SpaceX has an unusual, staggered lockup structure, with 20% of insider shares allowed to be sold after the first earnings report, expected in late July or early August. There are some other conditions, and other lockups ending at different times between 70 and 135 days,with most of the remainder coming to market at 180 days.
