Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) makes the chips behind most of the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out, and the payoff for its shareholders has been enormous. But lately a new worry has surfaced: What if AI spending is near its peak? That question has pushed the stock down about 18% from its mid-May high as of this writing, even as Nvidia’s business keeps accelerating.
Given this backdrop, it’s a good time to tune out the near-term noise and focus on the long-term. So, where could the stock realistically be in 2030?
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Unfortunately, the possible outcomes are wide — not just because of the unpredictable nature of its business in a fast-changing industry, but also because of its stock’s premium valuation. Nvidia could keep executing at full speed and still deliver only ordinary returns to investors from here. Or AI spending could prove more durable than skeptics expect, letting the company grow into and beyond today’s price.
Both outcomes are plausible.
The bull case: demand is still booming
Demand certainly isn’t a problem. And this is great news for investors, because the entire bull case rests on it.
Nvidia‘s most recent quarter showed no sign of a slowdown. In its fiscal first quarter of 2027 (the period ended April 26, 2026), revenue rose 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, and its AI-focused data center segment grew 92% to $75.2 billion.
Additionally, management guided for about $91 billion in revenue for fiscal Q2.
“The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed,” said Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang in the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings release.
The spending behind that demand is staggering. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are together on track to spend about $725 billion on capital projects in 2026 — up about 77% from last year, with most of it pointed at AI infrastructure.
Of course, not all of those dollars flow to Nvidia. But graphics processing units (GPUs) remain a central piece of the build-out, and Nvidia still supplies the large majority of them.
A fresh product cycle is coming, too. Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform is due from partners in the second half of 2026. If this build-out turns out to be a multiyear shift rather than a one-time surge, Nvidia can keep growing well into 2030.
