If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, Should You Buy More Bonds? New Research Might Make You Think Twice.

Jun 29, 2026
if-a-stock-market-crash-is-coming,-should-you-buy-more-bonds?-new-research-might-make-you-think-twice.

Ben Gran, The Motley Fool

6 min read

Are bonds still a “safe” place to invest in case of a stock market crash? According to recent research from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), maybe not. February research on stock-bond diversification found that bonds and stocks have become more positively correlated since 2019.

That means the old rule of thumb that “when stocks go down, bonds go up” might no longer apply. Many investors (including me) own bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF as part of a diversified portfolio strategy. But buying bonds might not be an effective way to protect against a stock market downturn.

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How should you invest if buying bonds is no longer a good strategy to diversify your portfolio? The IMF’s research didn’t recommend any specific investments or ETFs, but it did note that including commodities in an investor’s portfolio could help protect against a potential shift in correlations.

An easy way to buy commodities like precious metals is to buy the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV) or the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEMKT: REMX). These ETFs offer risks as well as upside. But if you’re interested in diversifying your portfolio away from the usual mix of stocks and bonds, they could be worth a look.

Let’s look at each of these precious metals ETFs and see which one could be a better choice.

An investor makes calculations about investing in silver.

Image source: Getty Images.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV): 21.75% annualized returns for five years

The iShares Silver Trust is not like a typical ETF of stocks or bonds. This fund doesn’t hold any stocks. Instead, it tracks the price performance of silver bullion. Buying this fund is a way to invest in silver without having to hold silver bars or coins.

During the past five years, this fund has delivered average annual total returns of 21.75%, outperforming the S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. It charges a sponsor fee of 0.5%.

Silver has had a massive price run-up recently. In 2025, this fund delivered a whopping annual total return of 147.9%. Strong recent demand for silver has been driven by investor concerns about higher inflation and increased levels of government debt; silver is also used in industrial processes such as building solar panels.

But what goes up can also go down. This precious metals fund has lost about 50% of its value since hitting an all-time high in January. Just like buying gold, buying silver can put investors at risk for high volatility and big price declines. And since the iShares Silver Trust ETF doesn’t hold stocks, it doesn’t pay dividends. Buying this silver ETF is purely a bet that the price of silver will go up. If it doesn’t, investors will be disappointed.

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