As if investors didn’t have enough to worry about — between an unresolved U.S.-Iran war, worries over persistent inflation and uncertainty around Federal Reserve monetary policy — they may have to now add seasonal factors to their list of concerns. Oppenheimer chief market technician Ari Wald warned that, while a bullish rotation in the market “remains intact,” he also sees the “risk of a seasonal correction” that would take the S & P 500 toward 7,000. That’s almost 8% below Friday’s close. To be sure, the third quarter is just getting started, and July has historically been a strong month for the S & P 500. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the benchmark averages a 1.3% advance for the month, going back to 1950. However, that momentum wanes in August and September, with the index rising an average of just 0.1% in the former and losing 0.7% in the last month of the quarter. September also ranks as the worst month of the year for the S & P 500, on average. “The S & P 500 continues to consolidate below its early-June high,” wrote Wald over the weekend. “Which way will it break? The evidence is mixed. Bullish rotation remains intact, highlighted by a new high in the equal-weighted S & P 500, but seasonal headwinds persist through Q3.” Any pullback would give investors a buying opportunity before seasonal factors begin improving, Wald said, though he advised clients against blindly scooping up semiconductors on dips. “While the group will likely remain volatile on a day-to-day basis, the challenge of correctly exiting one of the market’s strongest uptrends — and then successfully buying it back — should not be underestimated,” he said. “Instead, for investors looking to express a bearish view on seasonal market trends, we have greater conviction selling relative weakness within Consumer Discretionary.” Consumer discretionary is the worst-performing S & P 500 sector in 2026, down almost 1%. The entire S & P 500 has climbed 13% in that time, while energy and technology are up 22% and 19%, respectively.
Stocks could get hit by a seasonal correction, Oppenheimer warns
Jul 13, 2026
