Rich Duprey
4 min read
Quick Read
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The S&P 500 has surged ~95% since late 2022, placing this bull market in the top 10% of all rallies recorded since 1928.
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Goldman Sachs credits the rally to real earnings growth and AI infrastructure investment, not speculative excess like the dot-com bubble.
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Elevated Shiller CAPE ratios historically moderate future returns but have rarely marked an immediate market top.
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The stock market has spent the past three and a half years doing something few investors expected after inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and recession warnings dominated headlines. Instead of breaking down, corporate America kept producing stronger earnings, consumers kept spending, and artificial intelligence sparked a wave of investment unlike anything seen in decades.
While every bull market eventually ends, history suggests this one has earned a place among the strongest ever recorded at this stage of its life. That doesn’t guarantee another leg higher, but it does change how investors should think about today’s market.
A Bull Market Rarely Starts This Strong
According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 95% since the bull market began near the end of 2022. Looking back to 1928, that places today’s rally within the top 10% of all bull markets at a comparable point in the cycle.
The comparison becomes even more striking when stacked against history.
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Bull Market After Roughly 3.5 Years |
S&P 500 Return |
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Median historical bull market |
~35% |
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Top 25% of historical bull markets |
~50% |
|
Current bull market |
~95% |
In other words, today’s market has produced nearly double the return generated by even the top quartile of historical bull markets over the same timeframe.
Even more notable, Goldman Sachs found this rally has spent almost two consecutive years inside that top-decile ranking, interrupted only briefly during the March-April 2025 correction. Since that correction bottomed in April 2025, the S&P 500 has rebounded 51%, reinforcing just how persistent buying pressure has remained.
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Inflation and rate hikes couldn’t kill this rally. Discover the AI-fueled momentum that pushed the S&P 500 into the top 10% of historical performances. © 24/7 Wall St.
Why This Rally Looks Different
History offers plenty of examples of explosive markets that eventually collapsed under their own weight. The late-1990s dot-com boom is the obvious comparison, but the similarities only go so far.
