Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 slipped on Monday as rising oil prices and renewed Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment, but Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will rebound at Tuesday’s open as earnings season gathers pace.

The S&P 500 fell 0.19% to close at 7,443.28. However, the July 21 Polymarket contract implied a 95% probability that the index will open higher on Tuesday.

Why That Number Matters

Markets are attempting to balance geopolitical risks against a busy corporate earnings calendar.

While the U.S. has now carried out 10 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, reports that mediators are pushing for a 10-day ceasefire helped ease oil prices in early Tuesday trading after Monday’s rally.

The Bull Case

Futures rebounded Tuesday as easing oil prices improved risk appetite despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. S&P 500 futures rose 0.45% early Tuesday.

Crude prices edged lower after reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran, while semiconductor stocks continued recovering from last week’s selloff. Investors are also hoping another solid round of earnings will reinforce confidence that AI-related investment and broader corporate profits remain resilient heading into the second half of the year.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 7,489.18, above Friday’s close of 7,457.69, meaning the July 20 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded approximately $53,622 in traded volume before settling.

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