Can the recovery in momentum be sustained? That’s the question investors are wrestling with heading into a new month, during which there are no shortage of hurdles for the stock market to get through. Momentum just had one of its best days ever, staging a huge comeback Thursday from oversold conditions. A crisis at Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner that was forced to unwind many of its trades following big losses in artificial intelligence stocks, added to the resurgence. The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) notched a 5.5% gain on Thursday and climbed another 1.1% on Friday. It’s still on pace for one of its worst months ever, falling nearly 12% in July. The bounce implies there’s some near-term upside for momentum, but it’s how it handles overhead resistance that determines what’s next for both the trade and the broader market. “The next few days are important,” wrote Rob Ginsberg, technical analyst at Wolfe Research. “Ideally, we build on [Thursday’s] action and push through, but if we stall out and roll over, it’ll be clear we’re not out of the woods.” MTUM 1M mountain MTUM 1-mo chart There are no shortage of hurdles for the stock market in the week ahead, including economic data that will be parsed more than it’s been in recent history in light of a Federal Reserve that is less forthcoming with its communication. Next week’s jobs report is expected to show that the labor market continue to chug along, albeit a bit weaker than it was. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 87,500 nonfarm payrolls in July, up from 57,000 jobs the previous month, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is also set to edge higher, to 4.3% from 4.2%. “People are going to have to pay attention to all those numbers more carefully to arrive at their own conclusions,” said Thomas Browne, portfolio manager at Keeley Gabelli Funds. Earnings season continues, with the bulk of forthcoming reports outside of Nvidia to come from companies that could speak a bit more on the real economy. McDonald’s is reporting, as is Kraft Heinz, Costco Wholesale. Walt Disney is set to post results. A slew of tech companies, including Palantir Technologies, and chipmakers including Advanced Micro Devices, also reports. The explosive earnings season has continued to serve as a key reason why many investors are bullish. Of the roughly 300 S & P 500 companies that have reported, 85% beat expectations, according to FactSet data. Aggregate corporate profits for S & P 500 companies are tracking to grow more than 47%. RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina reiterated her 8,150 S & P 500 price target, saying that the recent choppiness has opened up some opportunities. Of course, there are still challenges ahead, including the fast-approaching midterm elections, and the interest rate outlook. Seasonality is also set to be a challenge, with August and September historically weak months for stocks. Regardless, she said the recent uptick in stock market optimism could continue to bolster equities, at least over the near term. “We continue to believe that the path for stocks will not be a linear,” she wrote. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, August 3 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Manufacturing final (July) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (June) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July) Earnings: Clorox , TKO Group Holdings , Palantir Technologies , The Williams Cos. , Vertex Pharmaceuticals , ON Semiconductor , Diamondback Energy , Alexandria Real Estate Equities , Marriott International , Loews , Tyson Foods , The Progressive Corp. Tuesday, August 4 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (June) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (June) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June) Earnings: Prudential Financial , Advanced Micro Devices , DaVita , Wynn Resorts , Booking Holdings , Paramount Skydance , The Mosaic Co. , Jacobs Solutions , International Flavors & Fragrances , Gilead Sciences , Emerson Electric , Devon Energy , Healthpeak Properties , Arista Networks , Amgen , Assurant , Sysco , W.W. Grainger , Public Service Enterprise Group , Cummins , TransDigm Group , Rockwell Automation , Duke Energy , Broadridge Financial Solutions , Pfizer , Zebra Technologies , Merck & Co. , Kimberly-Clark , Caterpillar , Apollo Global Management , Revvity , Gartner , DuPont de Nemours , Archer-Daniels-Midland , Waters , Qnity Electronics , NRG Energy , McDonald’s , Fidelity National Information Services , Marathon Petroleum Wednesday, August 5 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (July) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Services final (July) 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (July) Earnings: CF Industries Holdings , MetLife , Costco Wholesale , McKesson , Block , Sandisk , Ebay , Applovin , Expedia Group , Axon Enterprise , Western Digital , Texas Pacific Land , Solventum , Occidental Petroleum , News Corp. , Motorola Solutions , Honeywell Aerospace , DoorDash , Atmos Energy , APA , Allstate , Albemarle , Phillips 66 , Insulet , Uber Technologies , Global Payments , Eli Lilly , Walt Disney Co. , Zimmer Biomet , CVS Health , The Kraft Heinz Co. Thursday, August 6 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/01) 8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q2) 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (June) Earnings: Republic Services , Gen Digital , Aflac , The Trade Desk , Akamai Technologies , ResMed , Consolidated Edison , Airbnb , Ralph Lauren , Zoetis , Howmet Aerospace , Fastenal , Evergy , Datadog , ConocoPhillips , Viatris , Molson Coors Beverage , Warner Bros. Discovery , Kenvue , Keurig Dr. Pepper , Fiserv , Constellation Energy Friday, August 7 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (July) 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (June) Earnings: Take-Two Interactive Software , PPL , Vistra
August kicks off next week with jobs report, earnings as momentum recovers. Here’s what’s ahead
Jul 31, 2026
