Growing numbers of bearish investors are sounding the alarm about the stock market in 2026, with some even calling for another major crash. But are these fears actually justified? Or are we simply in the middle of another long-term bull market that nervous investors keep underestimating?
What’s actually spooking the bears?
The concerns raised aren’t entirely baseless. AI infrastructure stocks have become so dominant that a handful of names now drive a disproportionate share of US index gains, creating genuine concentration risk if sentiment towards them sours.
Layer on the ongoing war in the Middle East, dwindling global oil reserves, and rebounding interest rates as energy inflation creeps back in, and it’s easy to see why caution’s spreading.
So does that mean a crash is inevitable? Not necessarily. Despite all these pressures, global economies have so far proven remarkably resilient. And one underappreciated reason is a genuine structural shift in oil dependency.
Compared to previous energy shocks, economies today rely far less on oil relative to the size of their output, thanks to decades of efficiency gains and the steady rise of alternative energy sources. To be clear, that structural cushion doesn’t eliminate risk entirely. But it does mean today’s energy shock likely bites less hard than historical comparisons might suggest.
But let’s play devil’s advocate and say the stock market will implode later this year. Are there any UK shares that might hold up regardless? Quite possibly.
A defensive stock built to withstand the storm
National Grid (LSE:NG.) owns and operates the electricity transmission infrastructure connecting Britain’s power generators to homes and businesses. It’s a boring role compared to what some bleeding-edge businesses are doing today. But, importantly, it’s a critical company that doesn’t stop being needed whether the economy booms or busts.
That recession-resistance comes from its regulated business model. Prices and allowed returns are largely set in advance by Ofgem, insulating cash flows from the sort of demand swings that hit cyclical businesses hard during downturns. And we can see this in action when looking at its latest results.
In its 2026 fiscal year (ended in March), underlying operating profit climbed 9% to £5.7bn, with return on equity improving to 9.8%, driven by strong regulated performance across both UK and US operations – a trend that’s not expected to change anytime soon. But what’s the catch?
While profits jumped, capital expenditure followed even faster, climbing by over 20% to £11.6bn. That’s not a major surprise given the enormous multi-year infrastructure upgrade programme management is currently busy executing. But it does mean debt’s rising, as is the pressure on its balance sheet, if these investments don’t pay off.
