These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a mixed market open later this morning.
1. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday responded to Iran’s conditions for a peace deal with his own demands that Iran pay compensation for people killed in wars, attacks and protests, in a rhetorical escalation likely to complicate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s proposal, which had not been raised before, was a response to Tehran’s demands for compensation and an end to sanctions. (Reuters)
The hardening positions on both sides decreases the odds of any near-term agreement between the U.S. and Iran that would re-open the Strait. On Monday, shipping traffic through the Strait fell to six vessels compared with a 10-day average of about 11 vessels and the pre-war range of 130 to 140 per day. Oil prices, which climbed higher in recent days, are moving up again on Tuesday morning, increasing our view that S&P’s Flash PMI report for August will be more insightful for monetary policy than Wednesday’s July CPI reading.
2. Trading could be thin with plenty of institutional investors on vacation and markets still in wait-and-see mode ahead of Wednesday’s consumer-price index inflation print. (Barron’s)
Quant strategies smothered by crowding. Mortgage bundles that led to a crisis. Bets against volatility that became the main driver of turbulence. Now, leveraged exchange-traded funds look set to join the list. A dramatic expansion in the issuance and use of these products over the past few years has brought the vehicles — which harness derivatives to amplify, reverse, or reverse-and-amplify the performance of an underlying security — to the point when the risks are no longer contained solely to their own investors. (Bloomberg)
The above points to the likelihood markets will be increasingly volatile as renewed uncertainty is back in the market at a time when trading volumes are slowing. We’ve experienced this before and that means we will once again slow things down, looking for mismatched and exaggerated reactions that are really opportunities in disguise.
3. Intel Corp. raised $20 billion in an upsized share sale, a third more than it was targeting when it announced the deal Monday morning… Intel’s deal shows the resilience of investor demand for stocks along the artificial intelligence supply chain. (Bloomberg)
Anthropic PBC has struck a $9.1 billion deal with Riot Platforms Inc., a Bitcoin mining company that recently began selling AI data center capacity, people familiar with the matter said, underscoring the Claude maker’s efforts to secure enough computing power to meet its customers’ demand. (Bloomberg)
US investment giants including Apollo Global Management Inc., Blackstone Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Brookfield Asset Management are partnering with Nvidia Corp. to source $500 billion in financing for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The coalition, which also includes Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and KKR & Co., will “create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for Nvidia customers.” (Bloomberg)
Plain and simple, taken together, the above three items point to continued demand for AI and data center capacity. The move by Nvidia (NVDA) is one that could help reduce circular financing concerns raised by moves by Nvidia to fund customers.
The above combination has the potential to fan the flames of overcapacity concerns in the market, and that means we at the Portfolio will double down on our efforts to track AI adoption and usage metrics. If you missed the reasons why we are focused on those two metrics, and especially those for AI usage, you can find them here.
4. Anthropic is meeting with potential investors to shore up confidence in what could be the largest IPO of all time, offering assurances about its rapid pace of growth and strategies it expects will help address a growing public backlash against AI… Anthropic is targeting a public debut in September or early October, people familiar with its plans said. Its top rival, OpenAI, is now expected to follow in an IPO that could be as late as next year. (WSJ)
When it comes to the Portfolio’s position in Neostellar Capital (NSLR), which we added to late on Monday, we have said that IPO activity in August will likely be pretty slow. We also shared that we would be monitoring the pace of that activity closely in September once Wall Street is back fully on the job.
The timing mentioned above for Anthropic’s IPO has the potential to kickstart a rebound in IPO activity through the end of the year. In our view, that makes the offering, its pricing and follow through trading a telling barometer. Implications will be had not only for potential IPO pricing for OpenAI, but investment banking fee expectations for companies like Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and the Portfolio’s Morgan Stanley (MS). The eventual S-1 filing with the SEC will also be mandatory reading ahead of the one for OpenAI, but also to read into AI efforts at Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL), and Anthropic’s own chip efforts and expected capacity needs.
5. Smithfield Foods cut its annual total sales and adjusted operating profit forecasts on Tuesday, citing ongoing challenges including cautious consumer spending and higher input costs… Peer Tyson Foods last week also lowered its annual profit forecast, warning that losses in its beef business would widen as tight U.S. cattle supplies keep livestock costs elevated. (Reuters)
Publix’s second-quarter results put a spotlight on food inflation and its effect on grocery shopping, as the grocery chain posted only modest sales growth and a decline in comparable-store sales amid what it called economic conditions that have weighed on consumer spending… (ClickOrlando)
Data found in the FAO Food Price Index points to the July reading of 130.3 being the highest since January 2023, but there is likely more pressure to come. The FAO’s chief economist told Reuters this week that the world faces another bout of food inflation as wars in Iran and Ukraine along with El Nino create a perfect storm of higher costs and lower crop yields. We’ll spare you our thoughts on food prices being excluded from the core CPI… but will share this: U.S consumers spend about 10% of their disposable personal income on food.
The move up in food prices along with Amazon’s 2026 Prime Day landing in June this year compared to July last year suggest softer consumer spending in Friday’s July Retail Sales report. However, what is shows against Costco’s (COST) July sales results will be one of our focal points.
6. U.S. fast-food chains including McDonald’s that spent the second quarter battling to pull in price-conscious diners discovered discounts alone were no longer enough to keep them coming back. (Reuters)
Rising grocery prices are forcing many American families to rely on credit cards, loans and savings to cover essential food costs, eroding confidence in brands and prompting blame toward politicians and manufacturers. (USA Today)
Our thinking on this is rather simple: When the consumer isn’t taking advantage of discounts, there is either something wrong with the product or the consumer is too preoccupied with other cost pressures to take advantage. Data shows consumers are intentionally making better wellness choices, and how a nutritious meal can be made for as little as a few bucks has yet to be made clear.
At the same time, a June 2026 Omnisend survey of 1,075 U.S. consumers found 30% used credit cards for essentials like groceries, gas, utilities or medical bills in the past three months, knowing they might not pay off the balance. Data like that keeps us bullish on not only COST shares, but also those for TJX (TJX) and Amazon (AMZN).
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: ADP Employment Change Report (Weekly), Existing Home Sales (July), Total Household Debt (Q2 2026).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: Open: Smithfield Foods (SFD). Close: B&G Foods (BGS), Cava (CAVA), CoreWeave (CRWV), Lumentum (LITE), Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, COST, GOOGL, META, MS, MSFT, NSLR, NVDA and TJX.
