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Analyst expects higher corn yield in USDA’s August report
By Carah Hart Filed Under: Market News, News, USDA
Market analyst DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says updates to the U.S. corn and soybean yields are getting attention ahead of the USDA’s August supply and demand report, scheduled for Wednesday.
“If you’re in a tough area, and there’s plenty of tough areas of drought in the Western Corn Belt, you feel like the crop’s not there. How come the market isn’t reacting? The problem is there’s a lot of really good spots that have had more than adequate rain this summer.”
This will be the USDA’s first survey-based yield forecast of the season. Bosse tells Brownfield he’s expecting the U.S. corn yield to be higher than the 183 bushels per acre estimate from last month.
“It could increase to 184 to 185 bushels per acre just by reading and hearing and seeing what I’m seeing.”
But Bosse says he’s expecting a lower U.S. corn yield once combines hit the fields.
“I think it’s one of those deals where it looks really good from the road and farmer surveys are going to feel good about it. But you get out in the field, I think the heat and the drought damaged the crop, so I think the ending yields could be closer to a 181 or 179 bushels per acre.”
He’s anticipating the USDA to keep the average U.S. soybean yield in-line with the July estimate of 53 bushels per acre.
While yield is getting a lot of attention, Bosse says he’s more interested in corn and soybean ending stocks in the report.
“What kind of carry out do we think we’re going to have a year from now? You know export demand is is big for both corn and soybeans for old crops. USDA probably has to adjust those and and that’s going to tweak the supply tables right away.”
He says the tighter the stocks, the better for commodity markets.
USDA’s August supply and demand report is scheduled to be released at noon eastern, 11 a.m. central on Wednesday.
