Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2026, is going to be a big day for investors.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release an estimate of Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) as well as July’s personal income and outlays report. That second report contains a personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Then, after the market closes, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) will report its latest results at 4:20 p.m. ET. An earnings call will follow at 5 p.m.
Is the macro picture holding up? And is the AI boom still booming?
GDP grew just 1.5% while core inflation held at 3.3%
The last estimate put GDP growth at 1.5%. That’s not dire by any means, but it’s far from the numbers economists — and the market — would like to see.
Inflation is probably the less comfortable part of the picture at this point. In June, the PCE was up 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE — that means it excludes the more volatile inputs like gas prices — was up 3.3%. Both remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.
For investors, the combination matters more than either number alone. Firmer growth with stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer. Weak growth with stubborn inflation would be worse, since the Fed would have less room to help the economy. The friendliest result would be steady growth and cooler inflation.
Wednesday should show whether the economy is moving toward that better combination or farther away from it.
Nvidia’s data center revenue jumped 92% to $75.2 billion last quarter
The company has become something like a running receipt for the AI build-out. Its Data Center segment produced $75.2 billion of revenue last quarter, up 92% year over year. Companies are spending enormous sums on their chips in a race to build the most compute capacity they can. According to Motley Fool Research, the latest 2026 capital-spending guidance from just four companies — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta — adds up to roughly $745 billion.
Nvidia’s results will give investors a broad look at whether demand for the chips behind this spending spree is still accelerating. I wouldn’t treat another revenue beat as saying too much, however. That’s to be expected at this point. I would pay attention to its guidance and order book, as well as gross margin.
Wall Street expects Nvidia to guide for roughly $104.2 billion of Q3 revenue and roughly 75% non-GAAP gross margins. I’ll be watching those figures as well as the timing of its next-generation Vera Rubin chips.
I’m also very interested in what management has to say about customer financing. Nvidia recently helped arrange $500 billion in financing for customers building AI infrastructure. It also agreed to guarantee up to $105 billion to support OpenAI’s 20-year lease of an Ohio data center.
It’s certainly an interesting development to have Nvidia start to help finance its customers in this way, especially at this scale.
A friendly mix would be cooler inflation, steady growth, and strong Nvidia guidance
If cooler inflation, stable growth, and strong Nvidia guidance arrive together, the market will get fresh support, but if inflation stays hot, GDP weakens, and Nvidia’s outlook disappoints, things may get a little choppy.
Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now?
Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $431,488!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,279,584!*
That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by nearly 5x, Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul.
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 26, 2026.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The Stock Market Faces a Critical Test on Wednesday — Nvidia Earnings, Inflation, and GDP on the Same Day. Here’s What Investors Need to Know. was originally published by The Motley Fool
