Adam Hejl
3 min read
What Happened?
Shares of biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) fell 2.9% in the afternoon session after Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Simon Baker downgraded the company to Sell from Neutral on valuation concerns. Baker raised Moderna’s price target to $81 from $40, representing a 46% downside from the previous day’s close of $150.81, CNBC reported.
The downgrade followed positive results from the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of Moderna’s cancer vaccine candidate, intismeran autogene, evaluated in combination with Keytruda, the company said. While Baker called the melanoma data “undoubtedly good” in a note to clients, he argued that the stock’s “overexuberant reaction” was unjustified.
After the initial drop, the shares shed some of the losses and rose to $146.24, down 2.9% from the previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Moderna’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 54 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 10 days ago when the stock dropped 3.5% on the news that shares across biotech and big pharma cooled further as traders continued to secure profits following the extraordinary run.
The sector had jumped after Phase 3 results for Moderna’s individualized neoantigen mRNA therapy, intismeran, used with Merck’s Keytruda — the first positive late-stage readout for an mRNA-based cancer vaccine over Keytruda alone. With no fresh clinical or regulatory catalyst to extend the advance, the tape has shifted into orderly, multi-session consolidation rather than a one-day fade. According to BioPharma Dive, TD Cowen’s Tyler Van Buren called the readout a “landmark moment,” while Leerink’s Daina Graybosch said the reaction looked “overly optimistic” versus nearer-term sales potential, as filings, fuller data, and a multi-year commercial ramp still stand between the trial win and widespread vaccine revenue — a setup that has left profit-taking intact into August 24, 2026.
Moderna is up 374% since the beginning of the year, but at $146.24 per share, it is still trading 16.1% below its 52-week high of $174.38 from August 2026. Despite the year-to-date gain, investors who bought $1,000 worth of Moderna’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at only $351.00.
