Hyatt Hotels currently trades at $164.40 per share and has shown little upside over the past six months, posting a middling return of 1.5%. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 11.7% gain during that period.
Is there a buying opportunity in Hyatt Hotels, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Hyatt Hotels Will Underperform?
We’re sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than H, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints
Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Over the last five years, Hyatt Hotels grew its sales at a 30% compounded annual growth rate. Although this growth is acceptable on an absolute basis, it fell slightly short of our standards for the consumer discretionary sector, which enjoys a number of secular tailwinds.

2. Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin Limits Reinvestment Potential
Free cash flow isn’t a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it’s telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
Hyatt Hotels has shown poor cash profitability relative to peers over the last two years, giving the company fewer opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Its free cash flow margin averaged 2.8%, below what we’d expect for a consumer discretionary business.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC can also be an early indicator of future business quality.
Over the last few years, Hyatt Hotels’s ROIC averaged 3.9 percentage point decreases each year. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.
Final Judgment
We cheer for all companies serving everyday consumers, but in the case of Hyatt Hotels, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. With its shares underperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 43× forward P/E (or $164.40 per share). This valuation tells us it’s a bit of a market darling with a lot of good news priced in – we think other companies feature superior fundamentals at the moment. We’d suggest looking at a fast-growing restaurant franchise with an A+ ranch dressing sauce.
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