Lee Samaha, The Motley Fool
5 min read
According to Yahoo! Finance, the consensus price target from analysts for Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) is about $92, which indicates potential upside of 162% from its current stock price. It’s a significant opportunity, but is it justified? Here’s the lowdown from the skeptics’ perspective.
Viking Therapeutics’ prospects
The investment case for the stock rests on its lead drug candidate, VK2735, a dual GLP-1 and GIP agonist in development for obesity and type 2 diabetes. The two key advantages VK2735 may have over its rivals are a steeper rate of weight loss and the promise of a dual-formulation therapy (oral and subcutaneous). The combination of these two advantages would mean that patients could achieve significant weight loss with a subcutaneous (injectable) dose, followed by a more convenient oral maintenance dose.
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These properties mean VK2735 could win market share in a crowded field, and investors are looking forward to the results of its phase 3 trials of VK2735 in subcutaneous formulation (likely in the second half of 2027) and VK2735 in oral formulation (set to commence later this year with results likely in 2028/2029). In addition, investors are awaiting the imminent results of a small (180 adults) phase 1 maintenance trial designed to evaluate dosing regimens.
The skeptics’ case for Viking Therapeutics
As with clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies, there are two key considerations for investors to ponder, both of which pose risks for Viking Therapeutics. The first is competition from rival drugmakers and its possible impact on the market potential of Viking’s pharmaceuticals. The second is Viking’s success in its clinical trials, as that will also determine the value of its pipeline.
The obesity and type 2 diabetes treatment market is highly competitive, with drugs already within VK2735’s class of drugs, including oral formulations. Moreover, much larger peers like Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO), and Amgen are already developing next-generation or differentiated treatments.
Focusing on the more lucrative obesity market, the list of already approved drugs includes Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (tirzepatide), which has the same mechanism as VK2735, and an oral tablet, Foundayo (orforglipron). Novo Nordisk has semaglutide approved as an injectable (Wegovy) for obesity and as an oral tablet (Rybelsus) for diabetes, with additional oral formulations for obesity in development.
