Micron Technology (MU +0.39%) will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Sept. 30. As of this writing, shares sit near $928 — down about 7% over the past week and about a quarter below their 52-week peak of $1,255.
A drop like that, two weeks before earnings, can make buying ahead of the report tempting. Should you buy the stock before the numbers arrive?
There may be less suspense in this report than usual, though. Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter is already over (it ended in early September), and the company already told everyone what to expect.
The real news on Sept. 30 will likely be the guidance that comes with the results. And the memory-price curve underneath that guidance is flattening fast.
Image source: Micron.
Already in the books
Micron guided the quarter on June 24, alongside its fiscal third-quarter results: revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, a non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin of about 86%, and adjusted earnings of $31 per share, plus or minus $1.
Hitting those marks would mean another quarter of records. In the fiscal third quarter (the period ended May 28, 2026), revenue came in at $41.5 billion, up from $23.9 billion the quarter before — and more than quadruple the year-ago period’s $9.3 billion. Adjusted gross margin came in at 84.9%, versus 39% a year before.
But the pace is cooling by Micron’s own math. Revenue jumped about 74% sequentially in the fiscal third quarter, and the $50 billion target implies about 21% growth from there. The earnings-per-share guide of $31 sits about 23% above the fiscal third quarter’s $25.11. The fourth quarter also has an extra week in it (14 weeks versus 13), so the underlying pace is slower still.
That’s still extraordinary for a company this size. The slowdown, though, starts with the price of memory.
Price gains are shrinking fast
Micron’s results this year have been driven by price more than volume. In its latest quarterly filing, the company said fiscal third-quarter DRAM sales rose 67% sequentially, mostly because average selling prices climbed in the low-60% range. Bit shipments (the volume of memory sold) grew only a low-single-digit percentage.
Most of the gains have come in conventional DRAM — the ordinary memory in servers, PCs, and smartphones, rather than the high-bandwidth kind that feeds artificial intelligence (AI) processors.
TrendForce, a research firm that tracks memory prices, says conventional DRAM contract prices rose about 93% to 98% quarter over quarter in the opening quarter of 2026. For the following quarter, the firm forecast gains of 58% to 63%. For the quarter ending this month, it expects 13% to 18%, pointing to record-high prices that limit what customers can afford and to weakening PC and smartphone demand. The latest step is about a sixth the size of the first.
NAND flash, Micron’s other memory product, is on a similar arc. TrendForce’s forecast there cooled from a 70% to 75% jump in the spring to 10% to 15% now.
Now, a 13% to 18% increase is still an increase. Gains like that can keep revenue and margins at record levels.
However, the quarter the company should guide for on Sept. 30 sits even further down the curve. Its fiscal first quarter of 2027 runs into early December. If the flattening continues at anything close to this rate, roughly flat memory prices could arrive within a quarter or two.
The report isn’t the reason to buy
So, should you buy Micron stock before Sept. 30? I don’t think the report itself gives you much of a reason to. The guidance covering the quarter was set while prices were still climbing steeply.
The stock’s price, meanwhile, seems to reflect plenty of doubt already. Shares go for about 6 times what analysts expect Micron to earn in fiscal 2027, the year that began this month. Even at their 52-week high, the price was only about 8 times those expected earnings.
Today’s Change
Current Price
In other words, the market has already priced in a big step down in earnings.
Of course, if the new guidance shows memory pricing holding up better than TrendForce expects, the stock could rebound sharply. But buying two weeks ahead of the news is a bet on exactly the number the flattening curve puts in doubt. After all, a decade of covering tech stocks has made me cautious about buying a memory maker just as its price gains stall.
Ultimately, I’d wait for the guide. If it calls for another quarter of records with margins holding near 86%, I’d revisit — even if that means paying a higher price. Until then, I view Micron stock as a hold.
