Energy’s inverse grip on stock market hits a record high

The energy sector XLE is exerting unprecedented influence over the broader stock market, driving record gains for the S&P 500 SPY when energy stocks fall and historic losses when they rise, according to Rob Anderson, U.S. sector strategist at Ned Davis Research.

“The energy sector has never mattered more for stock market returns,” Anderson wrote in a social media post Friday.

Indeed, over the last 252 days—representing one trading year—the S&P 500 lost 5.5% on days when the energy sector was up, marking a record low. Conversely, the index gained 21.3% on days when energy stocks were down, establishing a record high.

That leaves the rolling 252-day return difference at -26.83 as of Oct. 1, underscoring the most extreme gap in the history of Anderson’s 53-year dataset.