Rishabh Mishra
3 min read
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below.
U.S. stock futures were little changed early Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes and weighed renewed geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict.
The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bullish for the Oct. 7 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7?” contract currently reflects a 62% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are balancing flat index futures against geopolitical friction, crude oil gains, and central bank commentary:
-
Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures are indicating a flat-to-mixed open across major benchmarks. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.06%. Dow Jones futures fell 0.10%, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.01%, and Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.24%.
-
Geopolitics & Crude Oil: President Trump faced bipartisan backlash from leaders including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders, and Chuck Schumer after stating at a Nebraska rally that Iran taking out Los Angeles or San Diego would be a “small price to pay” for security. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf taunted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X with a Halloween-themed meme highlighting U.S. economic pressure points like rising yields and fuel costs. Energy prices rebounded, with Brent crude rising 1.05% to $101.64 a barrel and WTI crude advancing 0.86% to $90.21 a barrel, as the EIA raised its fourth quarter Brent price forecast to $105.
-
Fed Minutes & Earnings Docket: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish the minutes from its September FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by August consumer credit data at 3:00 p.m. ET. Wednesday’s earnings calendar features after-hours reports from Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE:LEVI), Applied Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:APLD), Richardson Electronics Ltd. (NASDAQ:RELL), and Resources Connection Inc. (NASDAQ:RGP).
The Bull Case and Market Outlook
Despite macroeconomic and political noise, the equity market enters Wednesday on a notable historical streak. Market strategist Ryan Detrick highlighted that the S&P 500 has closed higher for the first four trading days of October.
A fifth consecutive gain today would mark the benchmark’s longest October-opening win streak since 2003, with the record standing at six straight days in 1989.
S&P 500 up the first four days of October.
It was actually up the first four days of October last year. Hasn’t been up the first five since 2003.
Longest win streak ever to start the spooky month? Six in 1989.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 7, 2026
