Omor Ibne Ehsan
6 min read
Quick Read
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Neutron’s fourth slip since 2021, caused by forward dome defects, pushed its debut to 2027 and sent RKLB down 10% after hours.
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KTOS trades at roughly 5 times sales with 153% upside to consensus, versus RKLB at 55 times sales built on an unflown rocket.
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CFO Spice warned that cash-flow positivity could take anywhere from 18 to 24 months after Neutron’s first launch, while Q2 free cash flow burned $110 million.
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The launch delay stems from a single carbon-composite dome at the top of Neutron’s first-stage propellant tank. After the close, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) said manufacturing defects in the forward dome are pushing the reusable medium-lift rocket’s first launch to 2027, from a fourth-quarter 2026 target.
Shares dropped 9.94% to $53.30 in after-hours trading as of 7:59 p.m. Eastern. Wall Street’s consensus target of $106.33 implies roughly 99.5% upside from that quote, and analyst targets carry no guarantee.
The stock had already fallen 7.85% to close at $59.18 before the announcement, as hot inflation data pulled the broader market lower. The S&P 500 fell 1.07% in the same session.
Rocket Lab’s Electron small-launch business is performing well, having flown a record 21 launches with 100% success in 2025, and second-quarter revenue rose 62% to $234.07 million.
Yet a $35.42 billion market value rests mostly on a rocket that has never flown and whose debut just slipped again.
Forward Dome Defects Turned a Narrowing Window Into a 2027 Debut
Chief executive Peter Beck said the defects “don’t necessarily mean that the dome would fail on flight,” but “our practice is to proceed only when we believe the system has the appropriate margins.” He added, “Possible success isn’t our standard.”
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NASA will build and inspect a new dome. Full first-stage assembly is expected in the first quarter, and a firm launch date will follow. The engineering call is sound, because a failed debut would cost far more than a quarter or two in hardware and in the customer trust Electron built.
