Amgen (AMGN) raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 on August 4. Since the market close before that release, the stock has gained 15.2%, outpacing the 1.9% return of the S&P 500. A higher forecast or a climbing share price means little in isolation. When the corporate numbers and the technical chart align, however, the combination warrants closer scrutiny. So how far did management raise its forecast, and why?
Amgen’s Guidance Raise
Management now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to reach $38.8 billion at the midpoint of its new range, up from $37.8 billion in the previous forecast. The revision represents a 2.6% raise. Adjusted earnings per share, management’s own measure, climbed to $22.90 at the midpoint, up from $22.40. Nothing in the release was guided lower. Forecasts for capital spending and share buybacks remained unchanged.
Six drugs that management counts as its main growth drivers collectively grew 26% from a year earlier. They accounted for nearly 70% of product sales in the quarter ended June. Repatha, a cholesterol-lowering drug, grew 37% to $953 million.
This expansion had to cover weakness among older drugs. Prolia and XGEVA collectively sold 33% less than a year earlier as biosimilar copies launched, a development management had expected. Total revenue still rose 10%. Newer drugs more than made up the difference, providing the foundation for the higher forecast.
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What We See In Amgen’s Chart
Amgen’s share price closed at $434.03 on October 15, holding 4.9% above its 50-day average, which tracks the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. The stock sits 18.9% above its 200-day average, the equivalent measure over 200 trading days. The 50-day average currently rests above the 200-day average. On both measures, the uptrend remains intact.
Shares rose 7.6% in the two sessions surrounding the release, outperforming a 1.6% gain for the S&P 500. The move priced the quarter’s results and the new forecast together. The stock has added 7.0% since then, while the broader index has barely moved. The climb has not been entirely smooth, however. The shares fell 10.1% in a single session on September 8.
Is There Room Left To Run In Amgen Stock?
Amgen can grow more slowly in the second half of the year and still meet its raised range. Revenue for the first half of fiscal 2026 reached $18.7 billion, up 7.8% from a year earlier. Reaching the midpoint requires $20.1 billion in the last two quarters. That target represents a 3.6% increase over the same quarters of 2025.
