Netflix Is Now Down 29% This Year: Is NFLX Stock Hopeless or Ready for a Rebound?

Quick Read

• Netflix stock has fallen 29% YTD to $66.29 despite beating Q3 earnings, as a $300M ad revenue guidance cut spooked investors.

• Roku surged 47% YTD while the S&P 500 gained 12%, making Netflix one of the market’s worst-performing major streaming names.

• Netflix’s rebound depends on its ad tier expanding into 15 new countries in 2027, with Q4 guidance serving as the next key test.

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A Q3 2026 earnings beat on October 20 hasn’t repaired the damage at Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), where softer advertising and revenue guidance overshadowed the headline numbers and sent the stock lower. Netflix stock is down 1% in afternoon trading, but that’s not the whole story. The stock has slid to $66.29, a slide that leaves shares 29% lower year to date (YTD) and focuses the debate over whether the streaming leader has turned into dead money.

That decline looks even worse against the benchmarks. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLC), which includes Netflix among its holdings, is down 9% YTD. In that period, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 12%, leaving Netflix stock trailing both funds by a wide margin.

Meanwhile, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock is up 47% YTD to $159.26, a gain that puts the streaming platform at the opposite end of the spectrum from Netflix. Fellow streaming company Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) rounds out the comparison, competing with Netflix for viewers and subscription dollars through Disney+ and Hulu; DIS shares are down 1% in 2026 so far.

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Ad Guidance Cut Overshadows Netflix’s Earnings Beat

Netflix’s Q3 report delivered GAAP earnings of $0.87 per share, ahead of the $0.8229 consensus, while revenue landed essentially in line with estimates. On the profit side, the company expanded its operating margin to 34.6% from 28.2% a year earlier, a jump aided in part by the timing of expense recognition.