Vandita Jadeja
5 min read
Quick Read
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Despite falling 33% last month, SNDK posted record Q4 revenue of $8.965 billion, up 372% year over year, its fifth consecutive EPS beat.
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SanDisk’s 8 NBM contracts carry a minimum of $93.9 billion in expected revenue, backed by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees, supporting the bull case to $2,400.
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SanDisk’s 83 to 85% gross margin guidance nearly matches Micron’s approximately 86%, yet Micron’s $981 billion market cap dwarfs SanDisk’s $183 billion, suggesting room to re-rate.
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SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) trades at $1,260.93 after a sharp October sell-off. The 24/7 Wall St. price target stands at $1,407.07 over the next 12 months. That implies 11.59% upside, and we rate the stock a strong buy.
SanDisk is generating record cash at very high margins, but the stock is priced as if the NAND cycle has already peaked. In our view, the pullback has gotten ahead of the fundamentals.
A 33% Monthly Slide Masks a Record Fiscal Year
SanDisk fell 9.47% over the past week and 33.09% over the past month. That leaves it about 46% below its 52-week high of $2,354.39. Shares are still up 431.92% year to date, and Barron’s listed SanDisk Friday among the stocks explaining today’s market.
Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached $8.965 billion, up 371.6% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 beat the $33.28 estimate, the fifth consecutive beat. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, management forecast to revenue of $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion and EPS of $44 to $46. The board also authorized an additional $14 billion in buybacks.
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Why Bulls See $2,400 Ahead
Visibility supports the upside thesis. SanDisk has signed New Business Model (NBM) agreements with 8 customers. At floor pricing, those deals carry a minimum of $93.9 billion in expected revenue, backed by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. CEO David Goeckeler said customers are “giving us demand signals all the way out to the end of the decade.”
