Rishabh Mishra
4 min read
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U.S. stock futures are trading mixed early Wednesday as Wall Street braces for a monumental session featuring the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, blockbuster earnings from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and skyrocketing costs from the U.S.-Iran conflict.
The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are leaning slightly bullish for the Oct. 28 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?” contract currently reflects a 55% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are balancing early morning tech strength against rising crude oil prices and ballooning geopolitical expenses:
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Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures are mixed with a tech bias. Nasdaq 100 futures are leading the advance, up 0.35%. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.04%. Conversely, Dow Jones futures fell 0.16%, and Russell 2000 futures slipped 0.14%.
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Geopolitics & Oil: According to Reuters, the Pentagon estimates that the U.S. war in Iran has now cost over $47 billion, significantly exceeding earlier estimates as the military moves to replace expended munitions and lost drone platforms. Energy markets are climbing again with Brent crude rising 1.43% to $110.97 a barrel, while WTI crude advanced 1.53% to $101.43 a barrel.
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Tech Earnings & AI Politics: SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) injected massive optimism into the semiconductor sector overnight, posting a record operating profit of $62.55 billion, a more than sevenfold jump, and announcing $75 billion in shareholder returns, solidifying the long-term AI demand narrative. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric on AI terminology, stating he is “officially banning” the term “Artificial Intelligence” in government documents in favor of “Super Intelligence,” drawing swift political pushback.
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Fed Decision & Earnings Docket: Wednesday’s slate is massive as MSFT and GOOGL headline a packed docket that also features GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:GEV), ServiceNow Inc. (NYSE:NOW), and T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS). On the economic front, September’s advance U.S. trade balance in goods, alongside wholesale and retail inventories, drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Reserve will announce its highly anticipated interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The Bull Case and Market Outlook
Technology strategist Luke Lango argues that peak-cycle fears in the AI trade are vastly overstated, pointing to a fresh wave of strong earnings across the AI supply chain. Highlighting massive milestones like Cadence’s $8.2 billion backlog and Celestica’s 90% revenue growth guidance for 2027, Lango notes this represents the “middle of a build-out,” not a peak.
