Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) used its investor day on Wednesday, Oct. 28, to repeat a goal investors had heard before. The plan still calls for revenue of $225 billion or more in fiscal 2030 and at least $21 a share in non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings. Management first set out the targets at its financial analyst meeting in October 2025.
The stock dropped about 7% the day after the first presentation, and it kept falling. As I write, shares trade near $145, down about 56% from the $328.33 record close they set in September 2025.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »
This time, shares jumped about 11% on the day. What was new on Wednesday was a second promise — a limit on how much more money Oracle will raise from investors and lenders. To me, the limit matters more to shareholders than the revenue target does.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Four years, $40 billion
Oracle pledged to raise at most $20 billion in extra funding in the capital markets during its fiscal 2027-to-2030 investment cycle (its fiscal years end May 31). Management expects it to be $10 billion in stock and $10 billion in gross debt, and the limit doesn’t include refinancing existing debt.
The cap comes on top of the $20 billion in stock Oracle already sold through an at-the-market program during its fiscal first quarter, which ended Aug. 31.
Showing how much the funding pace is set to slow, that puts the full four-year cycle at around $40 billion in new stock and debt. In June, Oracle expected to raise about that much in fiscal 2027 alone. And in fiscal 2026, it raised $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity — $48 billion in one year.
Management also put dates on the payoff. Capital spending should peak in fiscal 2027 and 2028 before easing. Free cash flow should turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 and hit $30 billion or more in fiscal 2029, when Oracle expects growth to be self-funded.
This would reverse a sharp drop. Oracle’s free cash flow was near breakeven in fiscal 2025, and fiscal 2026 finished at negative $23.7 billion. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 added around $5 billion more in negative free cash flow.
Dilution and debt get a ceiling
The revenue goal didn’t shift. But how much of that future profit goes to new shareholders and lenders did.
The stock half of the cap is small next to Oracle’s recent sales. At about $145 a share, $10 billion in new stock comes to about 69 million shares — roughly 2% of the 3.02 billion Oracle had outstanding in early September. The at-the-market program alone added about 141 million shares last quarter.
