Sasha Jovanovic
4 min read
Ford Motor shares closed at US$12.36, up 3.4% on the session, as traders reacted quickly to a cleaner looking Q3 2026 print. On the surface, the story is simple. Adjusted EBIT landed at US$2.7b and adjusted free cash flow reached US$4.7b, which soothed near term worries after a choppy year.
The longer view is trickier. Over the past 90 days the stock is still down about 16%, and trailing 12 month earnings remain in the red. That tension between a solid quarterly profit run rate and an unprofitable recent history is what will really drive how investors judge Ford from here.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
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Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$49,526m vs. US$50,534m (slight decline year on year)
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Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): profit of US$2,049m vs. profit of US$2,447m (lower profit year on year)
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Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$0.51 per share vs. US$0.61 per share (earnings per share down year on year)
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Trailing 12-Month Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, to Q3 2026 vs. to Q3 2025): loss of US$7,794m vs. profit of US$4,706m (moved from profit to loss over the past year)
Ford is betting big on affordable EVs and fat margins by 2029. Ask Charlie what Ford’s 2029 breakeven target really hinges on.
Ford’s Bullish Software And Energy Story On Trial
Optimists argue Ford Motor can turn software and storage into a real earnings engine alongside trucks and SUVs.
“Bullish analysts expect Ford Motor to build on its connected vehicle base, high-margin software subscriptions, and energy storage initiatives so that software, services, and EV-adjacent businesses become a larger profit driver alongside trucks and utilities.”
Q3 shows early proof. Auto adjacencies, including software and services, reached record revenue and about 10% of total sales with strong margins, while Ford Energy hit key plant milestones and has most 2028 capacity covered by contracts. Yet group EBIT and EPS fell year on year, so these engines are not offsetting broader pressure yet.
Volume, Recalls And Competition Test The Bear Case
Skeptics worry that weak demand, quality issues, and rivals could overpower Ford Motor’s margin plans.
“Ford Motor is already seeing pressure on U.S. vehicle sales, with projections for year over year declines in Q3 2026 and eight consecutive months of lower U.S. sales despite raising F Series production to a 20 year high.”
