By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Asian share markets slipped on Monday as worries about the sustainability of the AI investment boom loomed over the tech sector, while the high price of oil limited the safe-haven appeal of sovereign bonds.
Concerns about negative cash flow and the sheer scale of AI capex saw the cost of insuring against corporate defaults blow out last week, while gold hit a one-year low amid talk stressed investors were selling to raise money for margin calls.
An added wrinkle is the midterm elections in the United States, where a win by Democrats in either or both houses could result in more political hurdles for data centres.
Adding to the air of unease were withdrawals from Binance as the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange went back online on Sunday after hackers stole billions from the platform last week.
All of which raises the stakes for earnings this week with Apple, AMD and Palantir set to report in the wake of Intel’s near 29% tumble on Friday.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect capex by hyperscalers to almost double to $800 billion this year, and rise further to $1.2 trillion in 2027. At the same time, they see S&P 500 EPS growth of nearly 30% in 2026, slowing to 18% next year.
“Earnings results have underscored the fundamental challenge facing equity investors – earnings growth is strong, but it is no longer accelerating,” wrote Ben Snider, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist, in a note.
“Similarly, Q3 results support our view that AI investment spending will continue to grow but that the growth rate of AI capex is peaking.”
Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5%, while South Korea lost 0.8%, having shed 16% last month. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.4%.
In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures firmed 0.1%, while DAX futures were flat.
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On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures edged up 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures bounced 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost almost 7% in October for its worst month since the Liberation Day tariff rout of April 2025.
The retreat in equities provided a reprieve to safe-haven bonds, with investors wondering if a sustained selloff in the stock market could deter the Federal Reserve from hiking interest rates in December.
Futures still imply a 72% chance of a quarter-point rate rise, but now only have 55 basis points of total tightening priced in compared to more than 70 basis points a month ago.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries nudged up to 4.952%, but remained well off their October peak of 5.3645%, while 2-year yields stood at 4.612%.
