Earnings Report: NTPC Green Energy Limited Missed Revenue Estimates By 17%

Investors in NTPC Green Energy Limited (NSE:NTPCGREEN) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.1% to close at ₹83.42 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were ₹9.4b, 17% below analyst expectations, although losses didn’t appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of ₹0.62 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NTPC Green Energy’s seven analysts is for revenues of ₹49.0b in 2027. This would reflect a huge 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 10% to ₹0.70 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹52.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹1.00 in 2027. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for NTPC Green Energy

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹102 price target, showing that the analysts don’t think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NTPC Green Energy at ₹124 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹85.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await NTPC Green Energy shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting NTPC Green Energy’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 84% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 49% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NTPC Green Energy to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NTPC Green Energy. They also downgraded NTPC Green Energy’s revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NTPC Green Energy going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for NTPC Green Energy you should know about.

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